NBA Playoffs 2022 on Wednesday, 20.04.2022
The Phoenix Suns will once again try to live up to their role as favourites against the New Orleans Pelicans! As usual, we continue to offer our readers a programme overview on the NBA Playoffs as well as a hot Suns Pelicans tip on Game 2.
Basketball fans should prick up their ears right now! Because I’m going to analyse last Monday’s game action and justify why I’m going to make a certainly bold, though not at all outlandish, underdog bet here in the results.
The Suns got the easiest draw of all first round opponents with the Pelicans! And so the favourite won the opening game with a comfortable lead at first glance – just as the NBA experts had expected in advance.
But here at the latest we have to set some things straight! As strong as the qualitative difference between the two franchises may be, the last-minute victory of the Arizonans was a hairy affair.
The home side only narrowly missed a catastrophe. It was only thanks to the genius of their leader Chris Paul that the Black and Violets were able to turn it up at the end. CP3 scored 19 of his 30 points in the 4th quarter alone!
What almost doomed the Suns again in the game against the Pelicans is their inability to win the rebound duel against New Orleans! In Game 1, they came up with an unfathomable deficit of 20 such balls – and not for the first time.
For while Phoenix is 4-1 after season duels, all of the victories have been close ones, as the Pels have had the upper hand in rebounds in each of those five season duels – and by a significant margin, averaging eleven per game.
In addition to an outstanding Chris Paul in the final quarter, it was also a disastrous scoring rate of just 38% from the field that prevented New Orleans from turning their clear rebounding advantage into a win.
The fact that the Pelicans are not top-notch shooters was known before the game, but it was still almost enough to win, as they grabbed 20 offensive rebounds by the end of the 3rd quarter and subsequently converted 25 of 46 second-chance points.
In short, the visitors simply made up for their lack of scoring accuracy with more attempts! The Suns, on the other hand, are the better team overall, which can “usually” afford weak rebounding.
The Black and Violets did not lose the rebounding duel for the first time this season, but still managed to win the majority of these games. In line with this observation, the following NBA data allow for some extremely interesting conclusions!
The Suns can namely afford a deficit in rebounds due to their versatility! But there is a statistical floor that they cannot fall below. Namely, as long as they could secure at least 40 free balls, their season record so far has been 55-6.
But if less than 40 rebounds came together, the balance is only 9-12. In Game 1, by the way, it was only “35” and thus a number that is clearly in the red!
Since I don’t expect the physically inferior Suns to stand up to the physically strong Pels on the board, I expect the one-dimensional but extremely catch-proof guests to make life difficult for the favourites again on that basis alone.
The roles in Game 2 are correspondingly clear! The home side have low odds of around 1.20 to win, while the underdogs have an average of 5.35 to win as outsiders.
Conclusion: After my analysis, it should be clear that the Pels – even if they have limited resources – can be dangerous to the Suns in a way that few other NBA teams can.
The visitors are the masters of the free ball and have had a significant rebounding advantage in each of their five meetings with the Arizonans so far this season – as many as 20 in their last encounter.
With a bit of luck, the co-favourites to win it all would have gone down right in the opening game. Chris Paul pulled the chestnuts out of the fire for the Arizonans in the end, but with a bit of bad luck it could have gone to shit …
My Suns Pelicans tip: The underdog takes Game 2!
