ATP Tournament in Halle, 1st Round, Tuesday, 20.06.2023
Tuesday the grass court season starts for Germany’s number one. Alexander Zverev serves at the ATP tournament in Halle. The Hamburg native has to prove himself against his buddy Dominic Thiem.
It is the first grass court match of the year for both professionals. Who will come out on top? In my Zverev Thiem tip I give an overview of the best odds.
The clear Zverev exit after such a successful performance at the French Open up to that point came as a surprise to many experts. Casper Ruud prevailed in three sets and gave the reigning Olympic champion a bagel in set three.
The third missed appearance in the final at Roland Garros had its reasons. A pulled thigh slowed down the 26-year-old, who had no chance over the long rallies.
Therefore, Zverev also had to cancel his participation in the Boss Open in Stuttgart. Only now does the grass court season begin for him, which is not one of his favourite seasons. “I’m too big for the surface,” he told Sport Bild.
However, he has performed strongly on the fast surface several times in his career. He has already reached the final twice in Halle, in 2016 and 2017. On the second occasion, he met tennis legend Roger Federer, but lost by a clear margin of 1-6, 3-6.
In the following years, there were no major successes. In 2017 and 2021, he reached round four at Wimbledon. Milos Raonic and Felix Auger-Aliassime were the final stops.
Like the last two years in Munich, Zverev struggled at his home tournaments in Stuttgart and Halle. In Halle, he was eliminated early twice, and in his last participation in Stuttgart, he was eliminated after the first match.
After suffering a serious injury at the French Open, the 2020 US Open finalist will be back on grass for the first time in two years.
However, the lack of match practice hardly impresses the bettors. He goes into the match as favourite against Thiem (5.60 odds). Bet-at-home assigns Zverev 1.12.
Due to the cancellation of Felix Auger-Aliassime, the German is now eighth in the seedings and has a supposedly easier opponent in round one.
However, the oddsmakers also expect an easier match for Zverev, who had a slightly higher success rate (1.39) against Bautista Agut.
Thiem has only played one match on grass this decade. On Mallorca, the Austrian was eliminated right at the start after giving up against Adrian Mannarino.
He left the grass with a losing streak of four matches. In 2018, he celebrated his last success against Mikhail Youzhny in his indoor opener, before losses to Yuichi Sugita, Marcos Baghdatis, Sam Querrey and Mannarino followed.
Thiem, who at 1.85 metres is actually the perfect size for this surface, celebrated his greatest successes on the fastest court on the tour in 2016 and 2017. He won in Stuttgart in 2016, even beating Roger Federer.
His best Wimbelon result followed a year later when he reached the fourth round before Tomas Berdych put him out.
Will that love be rekindled on grass this year? After his first-round exit at the French Open, Thiem first took part in two more clay-court tournaments. In Heilbronn, he only made it to round two.
In Perugia, Italy, he lost to Stefano Travaglia in three sets and was eliminated after the first match. The one-time Grand Slam winner is still struggling with consistency.
He proved how outstanding he can play during his comeback against Cachin. At 0:2 in the set, he rallied massively, but made too many errors again in the decisive fifth set.
He has already played numerous matches against his friend Zverev. In the direct duel, the score is 8:4 for the three-year older Thiem. The tennis world experienced the most epic encounter in the US Open final in 2020.
Physically massively battered, he wrestled Zverev down in the decisive fifth set, turning around a 0:2 deficit and showing his fighting qualities.
The two stars fought out their last duel at professional level in Madrid 2021. Zverev prevailed in two sets without any problems. In the current form of the two players, I also see Zverev clearly ahead, as do the betting companies.
Like Thiem, he has not yet played on grass this year, but he is clearly in better shape. It was his strain that put Germany’s number one out of step.
The German also has a much better winning record on grass, with 30 victories from 47 matches. Therefore, I think a match with under 21.5 games is very likely. Bet-at-home has a 1.85 on offer for this market.
Conclusion: Thiem is still searching for consistency. Occasionally he has been able to build on his glory days, but against Zverev it will take more to hold his own.
The German’s strain has been cured in the meantime. In general, he has gradually improved his level of play after his injury and will also have an advantage against Thiem with his better serve.
Especially on the second, Zverev has developed a strong kick which should bring him many point wins, especially on grass. I expect a clear match for the German and come to the following Zverev Thiem tip:
Under 21,5 games in the match!
