BMW Open in Munich, Final, Sunday, 20.04.2025, 1:30 p.m.
Alexander Zverev is on the verge of his third title in Munich! On Sunday, he will face Ben Shelton in the final, who, like almost all Americans, is not exactly considered a clay court specialist. For the Hamburg native, however, it is his favorite surface.
But that’s not the only reason I see him at an advantage and expect a straight-sets victory in the second meeting of this still young rivalry. The corresponding 2:0 bet is waiting for you at Betano with my Zverev Shelton tip!
After my bet on Griekspoor to win the set, my prediction of a straight 2-0 victory for Zverev against Fabian Marozsan was also a complete success. However, I would have thought that the German would have had an easier time of it. But the Hungarian put up a good fight, especially in the first set.
The final score was 7-6, 6-3 in a match in which Zverev only allowed one break and played well defensively, winning 35 percent of return points overall. Marozsan didn’t offer much, and the favorite showed his efficiency by converting two of three break points.
Now the final against Shelton is coming up. Zverev is ahead again in the odds, practically a blueprint of those before the semifinals. The two-time Munich champion has odds of 1.20 at our betting provider with a German license. Anyone who places a successful bet on Shelton can quintuple their stake.
But I would refrain from doing so. I see the advantages clearly with the local hero, who has a clear home advantage in front of the magnificent Munich backdrop of the new 500 tournament. Zverev also has a clear advantage in experience on clay and brings more playing ability to the table.
The 22-year-old American has only played 36 matches on clay and had a negative record in 2023 with four wins from twelve matches. In 2024, he has at least doubled his number of wins with the same number of matches.
However, I still think the current world number 15 is too inconsistent on the return against good servers. And Zverev is definitely one of the best. I expect him to win most of his service games without any trouble.
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Zverev is also unlikely to find it easy to get into his opponent’s service games. But he should succeed more often. He is better from the defensive, more confident and consistent on the return and moves a little better on clay.
Much will also depend on Shelton’s first serve percentage. In three of four matches in Munich, he remained within the 56 percent mark. That would not be enough to threaten Zverev. At the latest in a possible tiebreak (2.10), which we can bet on at Bet365, it will be his downfall.
By comparison, it’s almost a bad day for the 1.98-meter-tall world number three if he doesn’t reach the 70 percent mark.
Zverev and Shelton have only met once before, in Cincinnati in 2024, when Zverev prevailed in three sets on hard court, the US boy’s strongest surface. Shelton had already struggled mightily with a meager 24 percent return point percentage.
Zverev made life a little difficult for himself by converting only one of eight break points.
What I didn’t expect, however, was Shelton defeating Francisco Cerundolo in the semifinals. The Argentine is incredibly strong on clay, having defeated Zverev on this surface in both of their previous encounters.
Therefore, in my opinion, Zverev got the better opponent in the final. Shelton should suit him much better.
My Zverev Shelton tip
As in the semifinals, I think 2-0 for Zverev is the best bet. As in the first match, the quality of the return should make the difference.
In addition, Zverev served better in Munich and benefited from tremendous support from the stands. The warmer conditions, which we will also have again on Sunday, suit his game and make it even more difficult for Shelton to return.
I expect Zverev to get into break point situations more often, take one or two service games off Shelton, and make the difference with more options in his game, at the latest in the tiebreak.
You can place my 2-0 Zverev bet at Betano. New customers receive a free bet of $20 before making their first deposit!
My Zverev Shelton tip: 2:0 Zverev.
