Australian Open in Melbourne, 1st round, Sunday, 12/11/2024, 10:30 a.m.
This year should finally be the year of the first Grand Slam title. The conditions are right. He enters the tournament as number two, would face high-flyer Jannik Sinner in the final at best and would also face Novak Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals at the earliest.
The German has recently been struggling with a bicep strain, but is reporting fit for the first major of the year. The 1.98 giant starts against Lucas Pouille. I expect a clear victory for the German, so for the Zverev Pouille tip I’m going for Tipwin’s under 32.5 games.
In 2024, Zverev was already very close to winning the Grand Slam title. He was 2-1 up in sets in the French Open final, but in the end he had to admit defeat to Carlos Alcaraz, who was able to raise his level again. For the Olympic champion, it was the second final defeat in a major tournament.
Now he is taking the next approach. The 27-year-old reached the semi-finals in Melbourne in 2020 and last year. He was still losing to Daniil Medvedev in the last tournament after leading 2-0 in sets, missing out on the final by a hair’s breadth.
After the year with the most victories in a season and reaching a new record ranking, it should finally work out in 2025. After the ATP Finals, he treated himself to a well-deserved break.
After that, he continued at the Nations Cup, the United Cup. However, he had to pull the rip cord after his first two singles appearances; his biceps went on strike.
One possible cause: the new material of the tennis balls, which now require a slightly different physical approach.
But at the press conference before his opening match on Sunday, Zverev gave the all-clear: “I feel good now, I still had a few problems with my arm at the United Cup, but now I have the impression that it is much better.”
Accordingly, the bookmakers are even more optimistic that Zverev will master the first round without any problems. In the Merkur Bets apps, I have just discovered a 1.02 for the German tennis star. Eleven times the stake awaits a successful bet on the underdog.
Even with a straight 3-0 tip, the odds are at most around 1.40, depending on the betting provider. Not really lucrative, but I’m sure that Zverev, in the form he’s been in over the last few months, won’t give up a set.
Pouille was once ranked in the top 10, but has not been at the top level for years and is currently ranked 104th. Instead, he primarily competes at the Challenger level, and at most of the larger tournaments, he has recently been eliminated in the qualifiers.
He only managed to shine at Wimbledon, reaching the third round, but he also benefited from his opponents, an out-of-form Laszlo Djere and Thanasi Kokkinakis, who dominated the first set but then had to withdraw due to injury.
He has not yet played a match this year, he missed out on qualifying for Brisbane with a defeat in the second match, losing clearly to the 134th in the world, Nishesh Basavareddy.
Overall, he has a pretty good first serve, but we’re not talking about Zverev’s level. In addition, his first serve is unreliable. Sometimes he breaks the 60 percent mark, but in some games he also stays below 50 percent.
And he is vulnerable on his second serve. As a good returner and with his strong forehand, Zverev will put a lot of pressure on his opponent. An injured Zverev took every second point from Zhizhen Zhang on his return.
I expect Zverev to get into the break region often and hardly allow anything himself. Under 0.5 tiebreaks are offered at Bet365 with odds of 1.63. We get a tax-free 2.00 quote with the 3:0 on top.
It’s worth registering with Bet365 just so you can follow all the Australian Open matches in the stream.
Zverev – Pouille Tip
Zverev turned up the heat again at the end of last year, reaching the semi-finals of the ATP Finals and winning the Paris Masters. He had a slightly harder time at the start of 2025, partly due to biceps problems.
He is now fit again and I definitely don’t expect it to be as close as the only duel in 2019 against Pouille. While the German has improved a lot, the world’s 104 has gone downhill.
I expect Zverev to serve confidently and assume that he will grab at least a couple of breaks in at least two of the three sets, so we won’t be in for a marathon.
My Pouille Zverev prediction: Under 32.5 games
