Hamburg Open, round of 16, Wednesday, 21.05.2025, 16:00
Superb start by Alexander Zverev in Hamburg. He beat Aleksandar Kovacevic in two sets at the Rothenbaum to reach the last 16 of the tournament, in which he reached the final the last two years.
In the second match, the Tokyo Olympic champion will face Alexandre Müller, against whom he has already won on German soil this year.
In my Zverev Müller betting tip, I expect a difference in performance, so I’m sending the 2:0 for Zverev and adding the bet that he can save himself the tiebreak. This combination is possible at Bet365!
“It was an almost perfect match from me in the first one and a half sets,” explained Zverev in the winner’s interview after his opening success in the city of his birth. “This is a working week, I want to gain confidence for Paris,” he admits openly.
After the last few tournaments, the Australian Open finalist lacked confidence. Only the fourth round in Madrid and the “title defense” mission in Rome ended in the quarter-finals.
The 28-year-old did not want to go to the French Open, which is why he secured a starting place at the Rothenbaum via a wild card. Now it’s time to recharge his batteries in his home country. He has already started to do so.
He has already reached the final at the Hamburg Open the past two years and won the title in 2023 without dropping a set
In the round of 16 he is clearly ahead according to odds, has a 1.08 with our Apple Pay betting providers. Müller starts at 5.70 odds. The Frenchman took Elias Ymer (6-3, 7-5) out of the field. However, Müller has only managed to bag two wins once in his past seven tournaments.
And that was at the Masters in Madrid, where he benefited from David Goffin’s retirement and went on to beat Ugo Humbert. In Munich, on the other hand, it was all over in round one. There he met the eventual winner Zverev, who secured his third Munich title.
He clearly lost out 4-6, 1-6 and had far more problems getting through his service games. He conceded a total of five and won fewer points than Zverev, unusually in his own service games, but that shows how clear this match was
And Zverev didn’t even have a good day himself, successfully getting just 48 percent of his first serves over the net, a rarely weak performance from the German number one. In comparison: Zverev achieved 71 percent against Kovacevic!
Nevertheless, he only conceded one break against Müller, who had already lost his debut match against Zverev in New York last year, where he was at least able to force the three-time Grand Slam finalist into a tie-break.
Will we see another one? I don’t think so. Müller doesn’t have enough speed in his strokes, especially over the service, and is likely to lose several of his own games again because Zverev will always manage to neutralize the rally quickly on the return
Müller will have a completely different experience when the 1.98-meter man’s serves come over the net. Moreover, it wasn’t just Zverev’s serves that were on target, but also his mix of bold attacking tennis and clever defense.
The sets are unlikely to last too long, as the world number three has won the last nine Hamburg matches outright and only played one tie-break in this series.
At Bet365, in addition to the option of combining the 2:0 and “Under 0.5 tiebreaks”, you benefit from tax-free odds and the fact that all tennis matches around the world are streamed free of charge. Winamax also offers this feature
My Zverev Müller tip
Zverev feels at home in Hamburg and has performed really well in the Hanseatic city over the last two years. He has already won his first match outright. He has clear advantages against the rather average to weak server Müller in the round of 16.
It was only in Munich that he sent the 40th player in the world home in no time at all, and he didn’t let a set slip from his grasp in New York either. Müller’s last few tournaments were not exactly exhilarating, which is why I expect another difference in class.
My Zverev Müller tip is therefore: 2:0 Zverev & No tiebreak!.
