ATP Tournament in Bastad, 1st Round, Tuesday, 18.07.2023
The grass court season is already over again after the spectacular Wimbledon final. While some professionals are taking a short break, Alexander Zverev is hot to celebrate success on clay. Before his home tournament in Hamburg, he attacks in Sweden.
At the ATP tournament in Bastad, he will play Alex Molcan on Tuesday. Anything less than a victory by the 19th ranked player in the world would be a surprise. I explain why I opt for Bet365 odds in the end in my Zverev Molcan tip.
Zverev was eliminated after just three rounds at Wimbledon. However, the reigning Olympic tennis champion was not very frustrated. According to him, he played his best grass court tennis against Matteo Berrettini.
His opponent later failed against Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz, while Zverev prepared himself on clay for the next tasks.
He only played seven matches on the green court, which he dislikes so much. He now hopes for success in the next tournaments, where he can collect some world ranking points due to his injury last year.
At 1.16, he is the favourite against Alex Molcan (5.00). He already met the Slovakian in round two of the French Open. It was the only match Zverev has won so far (6-4, 6-2, 6-1)
16 Germany’s number one worked out break chances and fended off all eight against him. Despite the three double faults, he scored better on his second serve than Molcan did on his first service.
The numbers give a small impression of the difference in class. However, the 25-year-old was ranked in the world’s top-50 last summer but has since slipped to 81.
With 15 wins from 31 matches, he has won just under half of all his matches this year. He played 18 of these matches on clay. His first-round exit in Wimbledon against Mikael Ymer was his only outing on grass.
There were no major successes this year. He reached the semi-finals in Banja Luka, where he lost to Andrey Rublev in two sets. He also reached the last four of the Bratislava Challenger.
In the other tournaments he never made it further than round three. Anything other than a straight 2-0 win for Zverev would be a surprise. Bet365 is still serving up 1.57 odds for this market.
Last week, Molcan played his first clay court match after Wimbledon in Braunschweig. Jan Choinski surprisingly managed to crack him in three sets in his home match.
For Zverev, it is the second appearance in Bastad, Sweden, after eight years. The then 18-year-old made it to the semi-finals before Tommy Robredo eliminated him from the tournament.
Even though this is the first clay court match since the French Open, I expect a confident and dominant performance from Zverev. Until the match against Casper Ruud, in which he was struggling with a strain, he played at a high level.
On his way to the semi-finals, he only lost two sets and created several break chances. The betting companies do not expect close sets against Molcan. Betano offers 1.33 for less than 0.5 tiebreaks in the match.
As an alternative to 2:0 for the German, Bet-at-home could also offer odds for under 12.5 Zverev games (1.69). The odds are higher, but the German should not allow himself a seventh game in a two-set victory.
My Zverev Molcan Tip
Zverev had an ungrateful third-round opponent in Berrettini at Wimbledon. The German is happy that it’s now on clay for him and that he can prepare for his home tournament in Hamburg in Sweden.
Molcan is struggling with form in 2023, lost in the Challenger last week already in the first round against the 149th ranked player in the world and now meets one of the best clay court players on the tour.
I expect Zverev to have no problems in the second encounter either and therefore come up with the following betting tip:
Zverev wins smoothly in two sets.
