ATP Tournament in Stuttgart, Final, Sunday, 15.06.2025, 12:00 p.m.
The first final on grass since 2017 – that was worth a few headlines! Tennis fans in Stuttgart will experience their dream final in two ways on Sunday. On the one hand, because the two top-seeded players are facing each other.
On the other hand, of course, because they will be cheering on Germany’s number 1. He is facing his nemesis, of all people. So I’m going to be a bit of a spoilsport and reveal in my Zverev Fritz tip why I think the American has a slightly better chance of winning.
“I’m so happy. My first grass court final since 2017 – eight years. And a final in Germany against a tough opponent.” Alexander Zverev couldn’t stop shaking hands on Saturday in the midsummer heat.
The 28-year-old has finally made it back to a final on the fast green grass. He hasn’t played on the Neckar since 2019. He had only one win here – until now.
After his quarter-final defeat at the French Open against Novak Djokovic, there wasn’t much time to get used to the new surface. Zverev faced Corentin Moutet in his opening match in Stuttgart.
He won the first set 6-2 with relative ease, but had to fight much harder in the second, winning 7-6. Brandon Nakashima made life even more difficult for him, but he managed to secure a relatively narrow 7-5, 6-4 victory.
The semi-final was even closer. Ben Shelton was a really tough opponent, and neither player gave an inch. In the end, the local hero came out on top, winning 7-6, 7-6 in a match that couldn’t have been any closer.
Break points converted? None, on either side! Zverev let all six of his slip, but didn’t give away a single one himself. With 77% of his first serves in, 86% of points won on his first serve and 63% on his second, his serve was impressive.
He hit 15 aces, while Shelton hit 21. Even against Nakashima, his serve was hardly faultless, with 71% of first serves in and 77% and 72% in service one and two.
Only at the start of the tournament against Moutet did Zverev fail to deliver top performances, with the switch from clay to grass clearly taking its toll. The way he fought his way into the competition deserves a lot of praise.
Unfortunately, what is not praiseworthy, and you can guess what’s coming, is the fact that his rival in the final is one of his absolute bogey opponents. Taylor Fritz has been causing frustration for Germany for quite some time, winning the last four matches between them.
Five matches took place last year, with Zverev winning only the first. Fritz knocked him out at both the US Open and Wimbledon, with those two matches alone featuring nine sets and four tiebreaks.
A quick look at Bet365 reveals that the tiebreak bet I usually like to place on Zverev has low odds of 1.27! So you have to increase your bet to “over 1.5 tiebreaks” to get 3.40.
In general, however, Zverev is still the favorite going into the match. The average odds are 1.70 to 2.15. The slight deficit should not bother Taylor Fritz in the slightest.
The American has reached the final in Stuttgart for the first time in his career and is looking to bounce back after his disappointing first-round exit in Paris (defeat in four sets against Daniel Altmaier).
In Stuttgart, he started his run to the final against Quentin Halys with a 6-3, 7-6 victory, followed by a 6-3, 6-4 win over Marton Fucsovics. In the semi-finals, he lost by the same narrow margin as Zverev on the other side of the draw.
He beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4, 7-6. Weaknesses in his serve? Hardly! Halys and Fucsovics squandered their two break points, while Auger didn’t even have any. With 86% of his serves in and 89% in the second set, the 27-year-old was unstoppable in the semi-finals.
Against Fucsovics, it was even over 90% on his first serve and a solid 81% in the first set. A brutal serve is all well and good, but what about his nerves in the final?
The world number 7 has not played a single final this year – so at least he hasn’t lost one. Zverev has made it to the final once since the Australian Open – and also bagged the title in Munich.
My Zverev Fritz tip
His nemesis awaits, and it’s a sweltering 30 degrees Celsius – it’s not going to be a pleasant afternoon for Alexander Zverev in Stuttgart on Sunday. After narrow victories, the local hero knows that advancing was never a given.
Fritz hasn’t dropped a single break point and is serving uncompromisingly – and once again slightly stronger than Zverev. Since the German is under a little more pressure, I’ve decided on a bet that I don’t really like myself:
Zverev loses to Fritz!
