ATP Masters in Miami, Round of 16, Wednesday, 03/26/2025, 8:00 p.m.
Alexander Zverev is the top seed at the Miami Masters – that should give him a boost. Considering that the weeks after the Australian Open final have been anything but exhilarating, the current start has been quite encouraging.
The fact that the opponents are now becoming more demanding from round to round is also gradually being reflected in the odds. And so it may not surprise you that I would like to recommend the “Over 2.5 sets” bet in my Zverev Fils tip.
He is still without a Grand Slam title! Alexander Zverev went into this season a few weeks ago with a clear goal and was only one match away from achieving his goal at the Australian Open.
The clear defeat against Jannik Sinner threw the 2021 Olympic champion quite a bit off track. He even messed up his favorite tournament in Acapulco, was knocked out in Indian Wells in round 1 against Tallon Griekspoor.
In Miami, Zverev has to deliver again. He has already managed the start. In the first match, he beat qualifier Jacob Fearnley 6-2, 6-4, and a little later, Jordan Thompson was waiting.
Zverev again only needed two sets, but the 7-5, 6-4 result reveals: it was a tough piece of work. The Hamburg native knew: the thing could have ended differently.
“I found a rhythm at some point after 4-1. I have to say that Thompson made it really difficult for me and played very, very cleverly and well at the start.”
How many times has the world number 2 won three matches in a row this year? Only at the Australian Open, and not since! So the pressure on Wednesday is likely to be high.
He played against Arthur Fils three times last year alone. He won two of the matches, with the Frenchman winning the other. 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 and 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, the two German victories were by no means easy wins.
Fils, however, inflicted a very painful defeat on Zverev in 2024: in Hamburg, of all places, the favorite lost the final 3-6, 6-3, 6-7. So, can we expect another close duel?
If our Paypal bookmakers have their way, the winner should at least be able to carry only one name. A 1.35 meets a 2.90 on average – that’s a good, but by no means euphoric, lead.
Arthur Fils is continuing to climb the world rankings. The 20-year-old has broken into the top 20, is currently ranked 18th, and the trend is rising. This is only his second time in Miami.
Last year, he lost in the first round to Matteo Arnaldi, but this time things are looking much better. Fils started the tournament against Gabriel Diallo, when his opponent had to withdraw due to injury with the score at 6-4, 2-3.
A little later, he delivered an absolute showdown with Frances Tiafoe. 7-6, 5-7, 6-2, in the end, Fils had the decisive grains. He hit 21 aces, even though, at 1.85 m tall, he is not one of the tallest players.
The 20-year-old only managed to convert four of 14 break chances, so there is still room for improvement here. Zverev, on the other hand, only conceded one break in Miami against him.
Fils has already shown in Indian Wells where he wants to go this year. He reached the quarterfinals, losing out here by the narrowest of margins (4-6, 6-2, 6-7) to Daniil Medvedev. It is also interesting, of course, that four of his last five matches have lasted four sets.
My Zverev Fils tip
Will Alexander Zverev continue his confident performance in the Miami round of 16? He has not yet lost a set, but that could happen very quickly against Arthur Fils. The three duels that the two played in 2024 were always hard-fought.
The young Frenchman served brilliantly against Tiafoe and has already reached the quarterfinals in Indian Wells. So he’s in great form. That’s why I don’t think Zverev will get through again without a fight, but I’m predicting:
We’re seeing three sets!
