Australian Open in Melbourne, Semifinal, Friday, 24.01.2025, 04:30 a.m.
I can’t wait for this semi-final! I feel like I’m counting down the hours until these two tennis greats take to the court. Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev will face off in the last round before the 2025 Australian Open final.
Two Olympic champions among themselves! And who will make it? It was clear to me that the bookmakers would see Djokovic in the lead here. His performance against Carlos Alcaraz was absolutely impressive, and in general he has improved from round to round, as we are used to from the most successful player of all time anyway.
But Zverev has already hurt him a few times, but ultimately is clearly behind in the head-to-head. I expect him to be able to improve the statistics and bet on the North German reaching the final, the win bet from Bet365 is my Zverev Djokovic tip.
It almost became a nail-biter for Zverev against Tommy Paul. In the quarterfinals, Germany’s number one fended off set points in the first two sets and finally took them himself in the decisive tiebreaks.
Only the fourth set was really convincing, so there needs to be an improvement in performance against the record winner of the tournament. Djokovic has already triumphed ten times Down Under, winning almost half of his Grand Slam titles in Melbourne.
He won his first title in 2008. That was the year Werder Bremen beat Real Madrid in the Champions League and the now retired four-time Formula 1 world champion Sebastian Vettel was about to start his first season as a regular driver.
Just to put it into perspective, how long the “Djoker” has been competing at the top level. Alcaraz, alongside Sinner, is considered one of the dominators of the future, and he sent the highly esteemed Spaniard, who is 16 years younger (!), home in just four sets.
Was it Djokovic’s strength or Alcaraz’s bad day? As so often, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. After losing the first set, in which Alcaraz played more powerfully, Djokovic went out, presumably because of groin problems.
The Serb did not want to say anything about it for tactical reasons after the match – understandably. From the second set onwards, we saw a different match; the doctored Djokovic went in for short rallies with direct winners.
Alcaraz found no answers and deviated from his own match plan until the last games, acting too passively and making too many mistakes.
He only became dangerous again towards the end in Djokovic’s service games, but was unable to get a break and, like last year, was knocked out in the quarter-finals. He is still waiting for the major title that is missing from his collection.
All in all, the Serb showed a strong performance, moving better again in the Rod Laver Arena towards the middle of the match. Ultimately, however, Djokovic is not at 100 percent physically and his service also faltered tremendously towards the end…
Nevertheless, he is ahead in the top sports betting apps according to odds against Zverev (2.30), has about a 1.58 before the start. Depending on the provider, the odds vary. The favorite odds of Bet365 are usually not the highest, so that’s exactly where I go right now for a bet on Zverev, which turns out to be very lucrative at 2.37.
And this is also free of betting taxes. In addition, tennis fans can use the bet configurator to mix several odds together. If 2.37 is not enough for you, you could, for example, add over 3.5 sets for a whopping 3.20. Over/under tiebreak variations can also be added.
I’ll go for the safe option of an easy win for Zverev. Even though the 3-0 scoreline is considered very unlikely for the German at 8.00, I don’t want to rule it out against the injured Djokovic.
Zverev’s starting time is unfavorable. He has to play again in a day session, starting at 4:30 a.m. German time. “During the day, the balls slide even more than in the night session,” the 1.98-meter man complains on Eurosport.
Slipping balls are poison for Zverev’s game. This means that the balls bounce less and stay quite low after impact, so they are not in the comfort zone of the 1.98-meter-tall world number two.
While Zverev was still allowed to play the first two rounds at night and made it through without losing a set, he first lost service games in the last three rounds and then, against Ugo Humbert and Paul, finally lost his first sets.
Otherwise, I think Zverev has the advantage. Djokovic will have to adjust to serves that, on average, are around 20 km/h faster over the net than Alcaraz’s. The Serb is considered the best at returning, but he will still have to give Zverev significantly more free points.
And even though he usually has good angles, he doesn’t have the pace and percentage of a Zverev on his first serve – and Zverev has always returned strongly in the days.
He secured 211 of 486 return points, a whopping 43 percent. That means he takes almost every second point when his opponent swings. At times, Zverev has been too passive again in recent rounds, but ultimately we are still seeing the most complete Zverev of all time.
“That’s not fair! You already have this incredible serve and now your forehand is awesome too,” Djokovic joked in the show match before the start of the tournament, when he played against Zverev.
Zverev has also improved in the net game, in variability and return position. All of this comes from the fact that he now feels more confident with the different shots.
It will be a tough task for Djokovic, who is up against arguably the physically strongest player in the world, who has gained even more muscle during the winter without losing any of his agility.
Zverev also inflicted one of his most painful defeats on him, perhaps even the most painful. On his way to the Golden Slam (all four Grand Slam titles plus Olympic gold in one year), he lost to Zverev in the semi-finals after having already been successful in Melbourne, Paris and Wimbledon.
On the day of the defeat, Djokovic had numerous outbursts and even canceled the mixed doubles bronze medal match afterwards, due to a shoulder injury, according to the organizers. Steffi Graf is still the only player to have achieved the Golden Slam (1988).
My Djokovic Zverev Tip
9:4 is the score in Djokovic’s favor in his duel against Zverev, who has won two of the last four duels and has taken a few steps forward in terms of play compared to the last encounter in 2023.
I see him ahead with his strong serves and his clearly improved return game against Djokovic. I expect the “Djoker” to regularly come under pressure in his service games and to lack free points in the tiebreaks at the latest.
In addition, I see a physical advantage for the German, which is likely to come into play especially in a fourth or fifth set. The longer the game, the better for Zverev.
The only thing that’s a thorn in the side is the low-flying balls, which are an even bigger issue during the day when the conditions are faster. At the same time, Zverev’s serve and forehand, which have more power than Djokovic’s, are also more dangerous.
Finally, the fact that Djokovic has still not really been tested in Melbourne speaks in favor of a Zverev victory. Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka, like Alcaraz, played below their abilities. Zverev, in his current form, is a different hurdle!
By the way, if my sixth bet for the sixth Zverev match pays off and you also take on the odds, you can look forward to a super-fast payout at Bet365.
My Djokovic Zverev tip: Zverev win
