Madrid Open, round of 16, Tuesday, 29.04.2025, 15:30
When his tennis career comes to an end, Alexander Zverev could start one as a VAR umpire in the basement of Cologne. In Zverev’s match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, a ball called “in” by the electronic line calling system was in reality clearly out of bounds.
The umpire is no longer allowed to check the ball himself when using this technology, which is why a desperate Zverev took his smartphone to take a photo of it. Despite the unfortunate decision, Zverev eventually made it through to the round of 16 in three sets.
There he will face a player he has not yet been able to defeat. In my Zverev Cerundolo betting tip, I’m expecting several breaks, so I’m opting for the bet-at-home bet that there won’t be a tiebreak.
Zverev vs Cerundolo in Madrid? Wait a minute, we’ve already had that! Just last year, the two clay court aces met in the round of 16 and the result was surprising, a 6-3, 6-4 win for the Argentinian, who defeated the two-time Madrid triumphant.
I still remember the match well, Zverev was completely disillusioned after the match. In his eyes, he hadn’t played a bad match and was at a loss as to how he could have lost it. He was a bit too passive and one-dimensional for me at the time.
Even today, Zverev’s versatile game is still not one of his strengths and players like Cerundolo are still very uncomfortable for the tournament’s number one. His 26-year-old opponent doesn’t play percentage tennis and is aggressive from the beginning to the end of the rally.
He also throws a few balls out, but on a good day he gives his opponents a tough match with his dangerous forehand. The oddsmakers are correspondingly cautious with the odds.
Zverev (1.48) is not quite so clearly ahead with our betting providers with PayPal. We get 2.60 odds for Cerundolo. Is that a little too high? After all, Cerundolo also won the second of the two duels and that was just two and a half months ago.
I don’t think the 1.55 for the 31st player in the world to win a set is wrong at all. Nevertheless, I think that Zverev is likely to make the difference in the end with the clearly better serve, which is why I’m looking at a 2:1 win for the German for a whopping 3.75.
If you still have a free bet left or want to pick one up from our betting providers, you’re well equipped with these odds and have nothing to lose. At Winamax, for example, you get up to 100 euros in freebets.
We weren’t close to a tiebreak in either the 6-3, 6-4 in Madrid or in Cerundolo’s home town of Buenos Aires (3-6, 6-3, 6-2). I don’t expect that this time either. In general, we don’t see many games from the Argentine, who likes to lose a few service games but is also dangerous on the return.
There are often a lot of breaks, especially on clay. In his most recent eight matches, he has played just one. Cerundolo’s biggest weakness is his serve. While Zverev consistently gets around 70 percent of his first serves in, the 26-year-old’s numbers fluctuate
In Munich, he sometimes fell short of the 50 percent mark and even when the first one goes in, he doesn’t manage as many free points as Zverev, who is also damn dangerous on the return with the high bouncing balls in Madrid.
And especially in the first round against Roberto Bautista Agut, he put on a parade performance. He struggled more against the in-form Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but was able to go one better after losing the first set.
Cerundolo, meanwhile, had no major problems in beating Harold Mayot and his compatriot Francisco Comesana and has already reached two Masters quarter-finals in 2025. That’s another reason why I prefer to avoid a Zverev win bet.
My Zverev Cerundolo tip
In this match, it’s all about how confident Zverev feels in his strokes. Because only when he has confidence in his forehand will he move closer to the baseline and dare to hit more courageous shots. He has looked very good over the last few days and his success in Munich has given him a boost.
At the same time, he is the more dangerous and more consistent server. Cerundolo needs a good rate of first serves, but that often fails to materialize.
In the end, I’m confident that we won’t see a tie-break like in the first duels. In seven of Cerundolo’s last eight clay court matches, a 7-6 set result has already failed to materialize.
My Cerundolo Zverev tip: No tiebreak
