Madrid Open, 2nd round, Friday, 25.04.2025, 14:00
Alexander Zverev couldn’t have imagined a better birthday last Sunday. He won the title for the third time at his home tournament in Munich, becoming the first 500-point winner in the Bavarian capital. Previously, only 250 points were awarded for victory.
After the subsequent serenade from the crowd and the celebrations, the action now continues at the Madrid Masters, one of the 28-year-old’s favorite tournaments. There, he will face a local hero on Friday.
In my Zverev Bautista Agut tip, I’m going for a clear win for the German, so I’m betting on a straight-sets victory for Zverev at Interwetten.
A strong tournament week for Zverev in Munich and also for me. I wrote predictions for the last three matches of the 1.98-meter man from Hamburg, and I was spot on with all of my recommendations!
In the Spanish capital, the Olympic champion feels even more comfortable than in Munich, purely in terms of court conditions. It is significantly warmer and there is usually no rain here. This means that the ball flies even faster over the net here.
This naturally suits Zverev, who has a strong serve and hits dangerous shots from the baseline. The 1.12 odds offered by our betting providers with PayPal already indicate that success is only a question of how high the score will be. Bautista Agut is considered a clear underdog at 6.00.
The Spaniard, who is the club ambassador for Villarreal CF, has enjoyed his greatest successes on hard courts. The 37-year-old has won only two of his twelve titles on clay, in Stuttgart in 2014, now a grass tournament, and in Kitzbühel in 2014.
He has the lowest win rate of all current players on clay, at 57 percent. In 2023, he won just half of his matches, while last year he managed at least ten wins out of 17 matches. In 2025, he is back to a balanced record of 3/3.
With Brandon Nakashima, Bu Yunchaokete, and Jaume Munar, he didn’t exactly defeat the cream of the tennis crop. Against his only notable opponent, Casper Ruud, he went down in a hurry, 2-6, 1-6.
Considering that Zverev did not have an easy time at the Golden Swing in Rio and Buenos Aires, he is still doing very well with eight wins from eleven matches. He won five of those last week in Munich, dropping only one set to Tallon Griekspoor.
Incidentally, I had predicted a 2-0 defeat for the current number two and recommended that the Dutchman would win the set.
Zverev has already faced Bautista Agut seven times on court. The Australian Open finalist this year leads 5-2. He won four times in straight sets. Only in his victory on grass in Halle in 2017 did he have to go to a third set.
They have faced each other three times on clay. Zverev has actually lost once to the current world number 55. However, we should not overestimate that victory, as it was not only their first encounter, but also Zverev’s first ATP match ever at the tender age of 16.
In Munich in 2017 and in their most recent encounter in Monaco in 2023, he successfully took revenge on clay, winning both matches in straight sets. And I expect the same this time around. With his powerful serve and the fast conditions, I see little chance of a break for Bautista Agut.
At the same time, he is not as confident in his service games and Zverev is strong from the defensive. Breaks are in the air, which is why you might want to consider betting on Bet365 that there will be no tiebreak in addition to the 2-0.
My Zverev Bautista Agut tip
Zverev has already triumphed twice in Madrid, is coming to the Spanish capital with great confidence and is facing an opponent who is no longer playing at the level he was a few years ago and is playing on his weakest surface.
He has already dropped five service games against Munar alone, getting off lightly on twelve occasions against his compatriot. And Zverev is even better on the return and, above all, much more dangerous on his serve.
The best player in tennis history, who has yet to win a Grand Slam title, should come out on top here! For a $100 free bet on this match, take a closer look at the new customer bonus from Winamax.
My Zverev Bautista Agut tip: 2:0 Zverev
