Australian Open in Melbourne, quarter-finals, Wednesday, 24.01.2024
Packing match in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open. Alexander Zverev has to play Carlos Alcaraz. He has already played several matches against the Spaniard. Alcaraz was the last man standing at the US Open. Zverev prevailed in the group stage of the ATP Finals.
This time, the Hamburg-born player is the clear outsider according to the odds. But does he really have as little chance as the bookmakers expect? After all, he leads the duel 4:3 against Alcaraz.
In my Zverev Alcaraz tip, I opt for the German to win the set, for which there are odds of 1.52 at Intertops.
Zverev still lacked the ease of play in the fourth round of the Australian Open. Once again, Germany’s number one had to go to a tie-break to decide the match in his favor. In the end, he came out on top against Cameron Norrie
After the second round against Lukas Klein, it was his second full-length match of the tournament. The Monegasque-by-choice also had to play Dominik Koepfer over four sets at the start. His last match against Norrie lasted over four hours.
Will he now have fresh legs against Alcaraz? It brings back memories of the US Open. At the last major, he tired his legs out in a marathon match against Jannik Sinner and offered little resistance against the strong Alcaraz in the quarter-finals
However, he was on court even longer at the US Open, and the individual points played against the South Tyrolean were more exhausting than the shorter rallies against Norrie. Nevertheless, Alcaraz once again had a freshness advantage.
While the German was on court for over four hours, Alcaraz swept Miomir Kecmanovic off the court in under two hours. He had previously benefited from the retirement of Chinese player Juncheng Shang.
The only set he lost was against Lorenzo Sonego. With this dominant performance, Bet365 has given him odds of 1.13 as the favorite. In comparison, Zverev has odds of 5.00.
In the duel, however, the odds are 4:3 in favor of Zverev, 3:1 if only the matches on hard court are taken into account. As mentioned, Alcaraz held his own at the US Open last year, but then lost in Turin after leading the set.
Zverev celebrated two quick hard court victories in Acapulco and Vienna against a rather inexperienced Alcaraz in 2021.
Once again, how reliably Zverev hits his first serve over the net is likely to be decisive. He won many quick points against Norrie with a strong rate of 76 percent.
The German still lacks confidence in the rallies. His forehand in particular is still causing him stomach ache as it scatters too much. As a result, he repeatedly lacks determination when hitting the ball. Precision and speed suffer as a result
And against Alcaraz, these balls have to be played at 100 percent, especially in the return game, to be able to steal points from one of the fastest and defensively strongest players on the tour in the rally.
Overall, I think Alcaraz, who has the better form going into the quarter-finals and will be fresher, is ahead. He hasn’t conceded a single break chance in his last two victories. But as dominant as the numbers are, the quality of his opponents was limited.
Kecmanovic is chasing his top form. Shang is ranked 140th and his only notable opponent was Lorenzo Sonego, who managed to take a set off him. I definitely think Zverev can do the same
My Zverev Alcaraz tip
In the duel between Zverev and Alcaraz, the German is 4:3 ahead and has only been beaten by the Spaniard once on hard court. However, the German is still in a bit of a form crisis at the moment, with his forehand in particular causing him problems.
As a result, the reigning Olympic champion is being sent on the defensive again and again. He won’t be able to afford to do that against Alcaraz, who hasn’t even allowed a break point in his last two matches.
But his opponent’s strength was limited. Zverev will be a different caliber, having repeatedly produced a strong rate of first serves. Alcaraz will have to nibble at this in phases. I reckon that he will give away at least one set.
My Zverev Alcaraz tip: Set win for Zverev
