ATP tournament in Acapulco, round of 16, Thursday, 29.02.2024
After Alexander Zverev’s surprising exit in the first round against his compatriot Daniel Altmaier (8.00 odds!), the German from Kempen and Dominic Koepfer are the last two remaining Germans in the field at the 500 Acapulco tournament.
Koepfer faces an interesting task against the US Open semi-finalist from 2022, Frances Tiafoe. I generally believe he can win against the 16th player in the world.
However, I’m even more convinced that there will be no tiebreak – and the corresponding 1.78 odds at Betano in my Tiafoe Koepfer tip
Will this bet bring me my next betting success? I already had the right instinct in Acapulco in my Rune Mmoh betting tip.
Koepfer can be satisfied with his performances over the past few months. He was a regular finalist in the Challenger tournaments and has also gone far in the higher-scoring tournaments from time to time.
He got off to a great start in 2024 with his triumph at the Canberra Challengers, losing just one set on his way to the title. After that, luck was not on his side at the Australian Open. Right at the start, he was up against the reigning Olympic champion and later semi-finalist in Melbourne, Alexander Zverev.
Although he pushed Germany’s figurehead to the limit in some moments, he had to admit defeat after four sets. After a singles win in the Davis Cup over the up-and-coming Hungarian Fabian Marozsan, Koepfer fought his way into the semi-finals in Dallas, where he was only stopped by Tommy Paul in the quarter-finals.
On the other hand, a good week later in Los Cabos against the in-form Nuno Borges on Mexican soil, Koepfer had to call it a day right at the start. He got off to a better start at the 500 tournament in Acapulco, beating Terence Atmane in three sets.
A grateful opponent, as the 22-year-old Frenchman is only ranked 146th, but Koepfer could have spared himself the detour via the third set with a little more efficiency. He had 22 break opportunities, but only took advantage of six. At the same time, his opponent remained ice-cold on three out of five chances.
Frances Tiafoe now awaits. He will face the US American for the first time. At odds of 1.38, the world number 16 is the clear favorite, and Winamax already has the odds as a hot tip. Koepfer is a close 3.00!
A great feature at Winamax, apart from the fact that the percentage distribution is displayed, is the new “Hot” category. Odds that are played particularly often are now highlighted in red.
Just to get an impression of which odds the sports betting community relies on, it is worth registering with Winamax. There is also a lucrative new customer bonus, free bets worth up to 100 euros.
However, I don’t see it as clearly as the users do in this case. The reason for this is Tiafoe’s currently fluctuating form, whose match is characterized by lightness. If he lacks this, he makes a lot of unforced errors and sometimes loses a game in a hurry.
Therefore, the 1.38 would be too risky for me and, given his form, not high enough anyway. Like Koepfer, Tiafoe also had to play three sets to open the match. Max Purcell took the first set from the man from Maryland, but then went down to defeat: 4-6, 6-3, 6-0.
A deserved success, even though Tiafoe occasionally offered something on his service games. But with seven out of eight break chances fended off, he kept his nerve in the decisive moments. However, since the US Open he has not really got into the flow.
He played ten tournaments after New York, only managing more than one win in Vienna and Delray Beach. Recent defeats have included losses to Marcos Giron, Tomas Machac and Juncheng Shang. Players who are no stronger than Koepfer…
This is another reason why the 1.70 for the Black Forest player to win the set is definitely not uninteresting odds. However, I feel more comfortable with the bet that there will be no tiebreak. More on this in my conclusion
My Tiafoe Koepfer tip
If he is in top form, the match should be a clear affair for Tiafoe. But the US American has lost his consistency. In only two of the last ten tournaments has he managed two wins in a row. The world number 16 has made too many mistakes.
Due to the lack of results, the 26-year-old has now dropped out of the top 10. I think Koepfer is definitely capable of winning, or at least winning the set. However, the last two sets against Purcell were played brilliantly by Tiafoe, which is why I’d rather make up my mind that there won’t be a tie-break.
I’m expecting a match with a lot of breaks. Tiafoe and Koepfer already had a combined 35 break chances in the first round! In addition, Tiafoe only played at least one tiebreak twice in the last eleven two-set matches.
My Tiafoe Koepfer tip: No tiebreak!
