French Open in Paris, round of 16, Sunday, June 1, 2025, 3:00 p.m.
Best performance ever! Daniel Altmaier has reached the round of 16 at a Grand Slam for the second time in his career. In 2020, he was already among the last 16 players in Paris. Will he go even further this time?
It will be damn hard, but not impossible. He faces Frances Tiafoe, whom he has not yet been able to beat. However, winning a set should definitely be possible, which is why I’m going for over 3.5 sets at Bet-at-home.
Tiafoe and Altmaier have faced each other twice before, once on the big stage in Melbourne in the first round in 2023. But the player from Kempen couldn’t manage more than a 1-2 lead before ultimately packing his bags with a 3-6, 3-6, 7-6, 6-7 defeat.
We didn’t see a tiebreak in the second duel, but four months later, things got heated on the clay in Rome. Altmaier won the first set, but lost the second in the final stretch and was unable to step it up in the end.
However, he was much closer to success on clay, with both players having eleven break points and Altmaier even winning more individual points, 102 to 100. Will we now see another match in which neither player manages to get through without dropping a set?
I think so, and for my preferred over 3.5 sets, we’re getting decent odds at Bet-at-home. At 1.38, Tiafoe is otherwise quite clearly ahead, while those betting on Altmaier can get 2.95 for their betting slip at VBET and Co.
Should Altmaier win this match, it would not only be his best major performance, but also a new personal record in the world rankings. He would move into the top 45. He has already reached 47th place once before, in 2023. He is currently ranked 50th in the live rankings.
But first he has to win his first match against Tiafoe, who has already reached the semi-finals twice at the US Open and is better known for his performances on hard courts, like many of his compatriots.
However, statistically speaking, he has actually won the most matches on clay in his career, with a win rate of 62 percent.
Can he defeat Altmaier at his favorite tournament? After all, the 26-year-old has already beaten the best American in the world rankings. Taylor Fritz, ranked fourth in the world, was eliminated in the first round after four sets. Altmaier was able to neutralize his strong serve time and time again.
This will also be important against Tiafoe in order to get into rallies. His footwork and agility on the court will be a different challenge for Germany’s number two. Incidentally, Tiafoe has already won a title on clay, in Houston, and has reached the final on clay four more times.
Altmaier, on the other hand, has only won Challenger titles so far, albeit seven of them. He has yet to reach a final at the 250 level or above. When it comes to big matches, Tiafoe definitely has the experience advantage.
In terms of nerves, Altmaier is likely to keep a cooler head. Tiafoe has often made negative headlines with unsportsmanlike behavior and questionable statements. So far, he has not shown any weaknesses at Roland Garros.
He came through smoothly against Roman Safiullin, Pablo Carreno-Busta, and Sebastian Korda. Strong results, but against beatable opponents.
Safiullin is no clay court ace and is struggling to find form, Carreno-Busta is also chasing his former glory, and Korda is struggling mightily after his injuries.
I see Altmaier, with his current level, as the toughest hurdle so far! The German should give him a tough Sunday with his good all-round clay court tennis and rhythm-breaking shots.
My Tiafoe Altmaier tip
Tiafoe hasn’t lost a set yet, but he hasn’t had the toughest path to the round of 16 either. Altmaier will try to break the American’s spell with his versatile playing style. In tough baseline rallies, the American would win the match in no time.
In the first clay court duel between the two stars, we saw a very evenly matched game: 102 points won to 100. That says a lot! In terms of form, I see both players at a similar level on clay. Therefore, I am going for the following bet.
Incidentally, the German’s odds of winning, which I consider too high, would be a case for Betano’s $20 free bet!
My Tiafoe Altmaier tip: Over 3.5 sets
