ATP Tournament in Hertogenbosch, Final, Sunday, 18.06.2023
Final day in Hertogenbosch. The Dutch tournament offered many surprises. Already in the semi-finals only one of the seeded players, Tallon Griekspoor, made it. The favourites were eliminated earlier.
Griekspoor made it to the final after his success against Ruusuvuori and will now meet Jordan Thompson, who won the inland duel against Rinky Hijikata.
Who will win the 250 tournament in Hertogenbosch? In my Thompson Griekspoor tip I take a look at the best odds of the bookmakers.
Jordan Thompson could win his first ATP Tour title on Sunday. On the grass of Hertogenbosch, his entry into the final is a bit of a surprise.
The 103rd-ranked player in the world beat Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (6-4, 7-6), Milos Raonic (7-6, 6-1), Medvedev vanquisher Adrian Mannarino (5-7, 7-6, 6-2), and Rinky Hijikata (7-6, 6-3).
None of his opponents was ranked in the world’s top 50. Only in the final, local hero Tallon Griekspoor, the 38th ranked player in the world, awaits a player from this category.
The Dutchman goes into the last match as favourite with 1.57 odds. A 2.37 bet can be placed on Thompson at Bet365, who has only dropped one set in the tournament.
It definitely paid off for Thompson to have already played a grass court tournament the week before in order to be in form on the fast surface in the 250s tournaments.
At the Surbiton Challenger he reached the semi-finals, again beating Hijikata, Mackenzie McDonald and Zachary Svajda. Only Andy Murray (7-6, 6-3) could stop Thompson.
He demanded a lot from the 2013 and 2016 Wimbledon champion, especially in the first set, and even took two service games from Murray.
In total, it is now six matches in a row in which Thompson has had to play out at least one tiebreak. For over 0.5 tiebreaks against Griekspoor, Betano has 2.07 odds on offer.
Accordingly, a 7-6 is not necessarily expected. However, bettors are not sure about the length of the game. 1.61 odds are waiting for a bet on exactly two sets, 2.20 on three sets.
I personally find the odds for the tiebreak more lucrative. Especially since Thompson can score almost equally on first and second serve and rarely lets anything go wrong in his service games.
Against Mannarino, he converted 77 per cent of the points after the first service into points and 76 per cent after the second service. He achieved similarly good figures in the semi-final against Hijikata.
Griekspoor should definitely be warned about the player with seven grass court wins from eight matches. He could be going for his second title after his triumph in the 250 Maharajah tournament.
Unlike Thompson, Griekspoor took time off after playing ten sets in just two French Open matches and bowing out to Hubert Hurkacz and only served on the green for the first time in Hertogenbosch.
Holland’s number one, who was born about an hour’s drive from Hertogenbosch, is part of the tournament for the third time.
2017 he failed to beat Vasek Pospisil directly in round one. In 2022, he made his next attempt in his home country, this time only losing to Felix Auger-Aliassime in round two after two tiebreaks.
After victories over Mikael Ymer (6-2, 3-6, 6-3), Alexei Popyrin (6-3, 6-2), Alex De Minaur (4-6, 6-3, 6-4) and Emil Ruusuvuori (6-4, 7-5), it could be enough for ATP title number two this year.
Unlike Thompson, there were no tiebreaks in the break-heavy matches. In the semi-final, two breaks were enough against Ruusuvuori, who himself could not make use of any of his four opportunities.
33 of the 38 points after first service went to his own account. However, with only 58 percent of successful point wins after second service, he was clearly more vulnerable than Thompson. Against De Minaur it was even only 44 percent.
It will be the Australian’s big chance in the final if the rate of Griekspoor first serves is meagre.
Conclusion: Looking at the competition, Thompson had the slightly easier path compared to Griekspoor. He laid the foundation for his successes with his commanding service games. Especially on the second serve he had strong point rates.
In their first meeting, the two players fought a close battle over three sets, which the Australian won in the Davis Cup last November.
I expect another close battle in this duel and am convinced that it will take until the first break in the match. The last six first sets in Thompson matches were already at least ten games long.
Therefore, I recommend the tip: Over 9.5 games in set one.
