ATP Tournament in Estoril, 1st round, Tuesday, 04.04.2023
Two top-class Masters on US soil have come to an end, got two great champions in Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. Now the time begins to strike for those who stick with the slow surface.
The clay-court season starts, and in Estoril, Portugal, we are immediately confronted with an Austrian duel in the first round. At Bet365, the favourite is only just ahead. In my Thiem Ofner tip, I now reveal why I believe the underdog will win the set!
When it comes to the start of the clay court season, it also means: Fire away for the French Open! It won’t be long now until the second Grand Slam of the year, so of course everyone wants to be there.
Dominic Thiem also hopes to play in Paris, preferably in the main draw. He knows that he has to be ranked among the best 100 players in the world, which he is currently eleven places short of.
“I still have time next week and the week after, so I have two more chances. I have to score points there,” said the Lower Austrian. In Estoril he has to go far, a quarter-final is actually mandatory.
He does not have to defend any points here, because last year at his premiere he failed right at the beginning against Benjamin Bonzi. But is Thiem even capable of being one of the best players in the tournament?
Unfortunately, the progress made in 2022 is not continuing, which is why he is also steadily losing a few places in the world rankings. The Austrian’s last performances were anything but promising.
In Miami, he was eliminated in the first round against Lorenzo Sonego, and in Indian Wells he lost to Adrian Mannarino in the first round. Cristian Garin in Chile, Thiago Monteiro in Rio, four times in a row Thiem has now returned home after his first match.
Twice a three-setter, twice lost in two sets, but with a tiebreak, one can at least attest him sufficient fighting spirit. So now Thiem will meet his compatriot Sebastian Ofner for the third time.
2019 and 2022 both met in Kitzbühel, both matches went to the favourite. Last year, however, it was quite close as he prevailed 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.
Of course, it is very interesting to note that Ofner is coached by Dominic Thiem, who, as we know, is Dominic’s father! I wonder if he welcomes the fact that our betting providers, with average odds of 1.60 to 2.30, don’t really favour anyone?
Ofner is considered to have a good chance, perhaps also because he is in a better rhythm? The world number 122 already started in qualifying, while Thiem benefited from a wild card.
He started with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Robin Haase and obviously saved enough strength for the match against Frederico Ferreira Silva. After a tough battle, Ofner celebrated a 6-7, 7-6, 6-3, well deserved main draw.
The 26-year-old has already attracted attention this year, reaching the Challenger final twice in March, but unfortunately losing. The competition in Estoril will be at least one size bigger.
The 1.91m tall Austrian is competing in Estoril for the first time, a real comparison of the 2023 performances is very difficult due to the very different tournaments.
My Thiem Ofner Tip
Dominic Thiem doesn’t have many chances left to earn a spot in the main draw of the French Open. He starts against his compatriot in Estoril. Slightly favoured he may be, but not much more.
After a single win in 2023, I definitely trust Sebastian Ofner to keep the match open for a long time. No matter who prevails in the end, my tip is:
Ofner doesn’t lose outright!
