French Open 2023, Final, Saturday, 10.06.2023
Who will secure the 2023 French Open women’s title? Iga Swiatek or Karolina Muchova? Both tennis aces have qualified for the final on Saturday.
The clear favourite is the Pole, who already won the most important clay court tournament of the year in 2020 and 2022. Muchova wants to win her first Grand Slam title after her surprise victory over Aryna Sabalenka.
Will she manage the coup after already defeating the world number two? In my Swiatek Muchova tip I give an overview of the best bets & odds.
Iga Swiatek is about to win her fourth Grand Slam title at the age of just 22. It would be her third at the French Open, having already been victorious in 2020 and 2022.
The world number one has had no problems in the tournament so far. She won all her matches in two sets. At least the semi-final was a little trickier. There, she had to take a diversion via the tiebreak in the second set.
She was a power, especially in the second sets of the French Open. Cristina Bucsa, Claire Liu and Xinyu Wang were all defeated in second sets, while Cori Gauff won at least two games.
The clarity of the results gives her a clear advantage in the final. With less playing time, she definitely has more power reserves on Saturday.
For comparison: Muchova still had to play three sets on Thursday, two of which went into a tiebreak – the third set also went over twelve games. In total, she played for more than three hours and thus one more than the Pole.
After the success against Sabalenka, Swiatek must not underestimate the Czech under any circumstances. After all, the Belarusian, now defeated by Muchova, had already beaten Swiatek once this year.
Moreover, in the direct Swiatek-Muchova comparison the Czech is 2:0. Muchova won both times on clay. However, the duels took place three and four years ago.
Will she remain unbeaten? The bookmakers take a very critical view. With odds of 1.13, Swiatek is the clear favourite going into the final. At 7.00 odds you can bet on Muchova to win
The 1.50 odds from Bet365 for another 2-0 win for the two-time French Open winner are definitely recommended. She has won her last ten matches on clay in two sets.
The rather high odds for a 2-0 win are due not only to the direct comparison but also to Muchova’s strong performance at Roland Garros.
Apart from the match against Sabalenka, there was only one other match in which she dropped a set. Against Nadia Podorska, she had to raise the level after going 0-6 down in set two.
In the semi-finals, efficiency helped her to reach the final. She took every single one of her five break chances. Sabalenka had far more chances, but was unable to strike in the decisive moments.
She had a total of 13 chances to break, but only managed four, unlike Muchova. The first-time Grand Slam finalist also showed more nerve on serve.
Muchova served six aces with no double faults. Sabalenka hit five service winners with six double faults.
The Czech was also stable on the second serve in the previous rounds, hitting only one double fault at most. She won 65 percent of the points on her second serve against Sabalenka.
In any case, it is conceivable that she will win a few games. Bet-at-home has 1.62 odds for over 8.5 games in set one. Only an early double break would jeopardise the bet.
But the Pole also gives up a service game every now and then. Haddad Maia broke twice in the semi-finals, Gauff also had five break chances, Claire Liu even had ten in round two.
If Muchova can play herself into a similar range and take her chances with nerves of steel as she did against Sabalenka, the final is likely to be a thriller.
Summary: For the betting providers, the match between Swiatek and Muchova is a clear affair. I find the 1.13 for Swiatek a bit too low despite the dominant run.
After all, Muchova only dropped two sets at the French Open and has already taken the world number two out of the tournament. What works against her is that she has no final experience, unlike Swiatek, and more playing time in her bones.
I expect a 2-0 win for the Pole, but I am convinced that especially in the first set there will be a lot of resistance and the set will not end 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2. Therefore I recommend the bet: Over 8,5 games in set 1!
