Miami Masters, 1st round, Thursday, 20.03.2025, 16:00
Jan-Lennard Struff is still searching for his form. A hip injury slowed him down last summer. Since then, he has only won more than one match in his tournament appearances. Most recently, he suffered five defeats in a row.
He will make his next attempt at the Masters in Miami. However, he has a difficult opening draw.
In my Struff Davidovich Fokina betting tip, I am convinced that the German will unfortunately suffer his sixth defeat and that the Spaniard will win the first set. NEO.bet has the right odds:
A month ago in Marseille, Struff finally got to play a quarter-final again. However, the man who won his first career title in Munich last year was unable to free himself from the crisis with his interim success in the south of France.
On the contrary. His defeat to Daniil Medvedev was followed by four more defeats in Doha, Abu Dhabi, at the Masters opener in Indian Wells and most recently against Joao Fonesca at the Challenger in Phoenix. In total, he has only won one set in this series of defeats.
Yes, his opponents were not without problems. He had to play Medvedev again and also had to deal with Holland’s number one, Tallon Griekspoor. And now it’s on to Fokina in Miami, who reached the final twice in a row before his surprisingly early exit at Indian Wells…
The bookmakers see the Spaniard ahead accordingly, although the odds are still really good at 1.56. Struff has 2.48 before the start of the match. Will it be closer than expected? The German definitely has the better serve and has won the first and only duel.
However, it was played in the Rotterdam hall and that was at the beginning of 2024, when Struff was in much better form. And it was a very close match over three sets and two tiebreaks. NEO.bet has a 2.52 for at least one of them on Thursday, where you’ll receive a free €10 bet as a welcome gift.
An odds that also appeals to me. Miami’s courts are not the fastest, but they have good speed. We can expect a lot of fast service games there.
Overall, Miami has not been the best tournament for the two top 50 players so far. The maximum was the third round. One or two sets are likely to be closer in this clash, but I see clear advantages for the 25-year-old from Andalusia.
He is the more agile and defensively stronger player. Things will get dicey for the Warstein native at the latest when Struff struggles with his first serve rate. Fokina also goes into the match with a great deal of self-confidence.
He reached the final in both Delray Beach and Acapulco, beating Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Denis Shapovalov, among others.
He previously reached the last 16 at the Australian Open after beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jakub Mensik.
Due to the conditions in Miami and the first close duel, an overplay bet is an alternative. Tipwin is the right place to go for this. As with NEO.bet, you can look forward to tax-free odds here.
For over 21.5 games, we already get 1.62 odds. The higher lines are also interesting, but then I would go straight for the single odds that we will see three sets in the match for 2.25 odds.
My Struff Davidovich Fokina tip
Struff is still looking for form. Will Miami be a good place? I don’t think so with the opening hurdle named “Davidovich Fokina”. He reached the final twice recently, taking one of the world’s best hard court players out of the tournament in Fritz.
The German will need a good rate of first serves to score many free points against the good defensive player from Spain. However, “Struffi” has remained below the 60 percent mark in his last two matches.
Fokina is currently the more composed player with a clear advantage in the rallies. At the latest when the free points for the Warsteiner start to dwindle, things will get dicey for the reigning Munich champion, who has lost five times in a row.
My Struff Davidovich Fokina tip: Set 1 & Match Fokina
