Wimbledon 2022, 3rd round, Saturday, 02.07.2022
The guesswork around Rafael Nadal, it continues! The Spaniard is revealing major problems at Wimbledon, which no one really knows if they are exclusively related to his foot injury. Only one thing is certain: the opponents are getting harder.
He now has to play in the 3rd round on Saturday and hopes not to have to go into an extra set again.
And what prompts me to recommend betting on Nadal again in the end?
Francisco Cerundolo and Ricardas Berankis are the two opponents Rafael Nadal has faced in London so far. Beforehand, everyone expected him to beat them in a quick three sets, but things turned out a little differently.
Already at 6-4, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 against Cerundolo it became clear: something is not right. He gave away an unbelievable 18 break chances! It was just as well that Cerundolo only managed to make use of four of them.
In the 2nd round, Nadal showed improvement in this area, only five chances were given to his opponent. And yet, again he had to fight much more than he had hoped with his damaged foot.
6-4, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, the close result was undoubtedly also due to the fact that Beranki conjured up a really great performance on the grass. 6/14 and 6/16, this yield shows how relaxed Nadal has been with his own break chances lately.
Little risk, many easy errors, no aggressiveness – there was no sign of the Nadal who won the French Open just a few weeks ago. One could almost get the impression that he was deliberately lowering his performance.
So is he just slowing down because he knows that he has to manage his strength well? Or is it the foot that is causing more problems than he would like to admit? In any case, the fact is that from now on the competitors will be more demanding.
On Saturday, he will face Lorenzo Sonego for the first time. 1.15 at 4.90, it is no surprise that the betting companies are in favour of the Spaniard. A 3:0 win, however, would then already come close to doubling the betting stakes at Bwin.
Of course, Lorenzo Sonego will have taken a close look at what Francisco Cerundolo and Ricardas Berankis achieved against Nadal. After 2021, the 27-year-old would love to reach the last 16 of Wimbledon for the second time.
This project almost failed in the first round because Denis Kudla made life difficult for him. 6-7, 6-3, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, it took several hours before Sonego could finally cheer.
Only eight of his 17 break opportunities were converted, which is one of the reasons why it took so long. There was an improvement in the second round, but was it enough to take on Nadal?
He won 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 against Hugo Gaston. A smooth, but by no means clear, victory without any problems. Once again, Sonego was weak in terms of breaks, he only managed three out of 13.
After all, Gaston was only allowed to break once. Nevertheless, Sonego’s performance was not so strong that he could have sent Nadal an exclamation mark. His performances at the three preparatory tournaments were already mixed, most recently he was eliminated against De Minaur and Kudla.
My Sonego Nadal Tip
On Saturday, we may finally see whether Rafael Nadal is just using his powers effectively or is just too handicapped.
Nevertheless, I don’t think Lorenzo Sonego has a real chance of winning. The Italian is just playing too inconsistently this year for that. My tip for the 3rd round is for this reason:
Nadal wins with over 29.5 games!
