Wimbledon, Quarterfinals, Wednesday, 09.07.2025, 3:30 p.m.
When was the last time the number 1 faltered so badly? Jannik Sinner is still in Wimbledon and will play his quarterfinal on Wednesday. But the South Tyrolean knows that he only just managed to escape elimination.
After his lucky escape against Grigor Dimitrov, his next opponent will be no easier. Will the tournament favorite quickly regroup or continue his erratic performance? I’ll try to answer that question in my Sinner Shelton prediction.
Ultimately, I’m recommending a bet that leaves a lot of room for maneuver in terms of the final result. And that is: The underdog in this match will win at least one set!
It was one of those “victories” that even a world star is not proud of. On Monday evening, Jannik Sinner himself was not quite sure what had happened to him. He had advanced to the round of 16 at Wimbledon without losing a set. There, it seemed as if he was having a day to forget.
He was trailing Grigor Dimitrov 0-2 and knew that Not another five-setter – he had lost all of his recent matches that went to five sets, especially in the French Open final against Carlos Alcaraz!
3-6, 5-7, the world number 1 fully deserved to lose the first two sets to Dimitrov. With the score at 2-2 in the third, his opponent suddenly had to retire due to injury. It was a fate that did not leave Sinner unmoved.
How would the match have ended if Dimitrov had been able to continue playing as normal? Who knows! Sinner was unusually error-prone, and even winning 82% of points on his first serve didn’t help.
Is this a sign that his first three performances at Wimbledon were only possible because his opponents were relatively weak? The world number one had beaten Pedro Martinez (6-1, 6-3, 6-1), Aleksandar Vukic (6-1, 6-1, 6-3) and Luca Nardi (6-4, 6-3, 6-0).
So was his early exit during Wimbledon preparations in Halle not just a one-off? The 23-year-old had already lost in the round of 16 against Alexander Bublik.
Ben Shelton is definitely not a player to be feared. Sinner lost the first direct duel, but has won five times since then. The two last met at the Australian Open, where the Italian won in straight sets.
Speaking of straight sets, Sinner hasn’t dropped a single set in his five wins! 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 – that was the score when he prevailed at Wimbledon almost exactly a year ago.
There seems to be no question that the world number 1 is the favorite despite his curious round of 16 exit. The odds at our PayPal bookmakers are no longer quite as clear-cut, but at an average of 1.20 to 4.70, they are still clear.
Ben Shelton will of course have been watching very closely to see what his next opponent in the round of 16 has been up to. The American is now one of the top 10 players in the world and is playing in the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam for the fourth time in his career.
Shelton was knocked out in the last 16 at the last French Open, but a four-set defeat to Carlos Alcaraz can happen to anyone.
A Wimbledon quarter-final is a first for Shelton. The grass court tournaments before his trip to Wimbledon were sluggish, but he has now got used to the new surface.
Shelton started the tournament with a relatively close 6-4, 7-6, 7-6 win over Alex Bolt, followed by a 6-2, 7-5, 6-4 victory over Rinky Hijikata. He also defeated Marton Fucovics in straight sets, winning 6-3, 7-6, 6-2.
In the round of 16, he lost his first set, but it didn’t matter in the end. He lost the first set 3-6 to Lorenzo Sonego, but came back strongly to win 6-1, 7-6, 7-5.
Four tiebreaks won speaks volumes about his mental strength. Nevertheless, it’s not as if Shelton is playing his opponents off the court. Only 60 percent of his first serves were successful against Sonego, and he also gave away six break points.
Although the American is 1.93 meters tall, he is not one of those stars who thunder the ball uncompromisingly over the net. This is likely to be particularly important against Sinner, because if the number 1 has another normal day, Shelton will need a solid serve.
My Sinner Shelton tip
What exactly was going on with Jannik Sinner in the round of 16? Was he physically or mentally unfit? Or perhaps both in the end? His performance against Grigor Dimitrov raised many questions.
Although he has always dominated Ben Shelton in their previous head-to-head matches, after so many wobbles, I can’t imagine the American going into Wednesday’s match without a chance. Accordingly, I have decided on the following bet:
Shelton will win a set against Sinner!
