French Open in Paris, Round of 16, Monday, 02.05.2025, 8:15 p.m.
Anyone who travels to the French Open as the number 1 seed knows that reaching the final is the minimum expected of them. Jannik Sinner has never won the title in Paris, but 2025 could be his time. His performances so far? They have been flawless.
Now the South Tyrolean faces the current world number 15. But anyone who thinks the odds could change is mistaken: there is a clear favorite. In my Sinner Rublev tip, I’ll tell you why I believe we’ll see a clear victory here.
Jannik Sinner had to sit out for almost four months immediately after his triumph at the Australian Open. The current world number one tennis player has served his doping ban.
He made a strong comeback in Rome, albeit losing the final to Carlos Alcaraz. For the French Open, there is no alternative to the final. Sinner won his opening match 6-4, 6-3, 7-5 against Arthur Rinderknech.
His compatriot Richard Gasquet didn’t stand a chance in the second round, with Sinner winning 6-3, 6-0, 6-4. Jiri Lehecka was not such an easy opponent for the Italian in the third round, but instead of faltering, he put on a show of strength.
6-0, 6-1, 6-2 – Sinner swept his opponent off the court with a rock-solid performance. He fended off Lehecka’s only break point and won 83% of points on his first serve and 85% on his second.
The world number one has yet to make a double fault and is averaging over 80% of points won on his first serve. He spent an hour and a half on court against Lehecka, allowing him to conserve valuable energy.
“I played really well. Especially for two and a half sets, then he served very well, with a lot of courage,” said Sinner after his victory – his 17th in a row on the Grand Slam stage.
Of course, he knows that a French Open title is still missing from his collection. A year ago, he lost in five sets to Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals, and in 2023, he was sensationally knocked out in the second round by Daniel Altmaier.
2022, very interestingly, he was eliminated in the round of 16 by Andrey Rublev. But: Sinner was injured during the match, so I don’t consider this experience a defeat.
So I’m already in the middle of a head-to-head comparison, which stands at 6-3 in favor of the South Tyrolean. If the bookmakers are to be believed, this fact could also lead to clear odds.
On average, Oddset is also offering odds of 1.05 to 9.50. Andrey Rublev will certainly not be happy about the fact that he is going into the match as the clear underdog, but at least he has nothing to lose.
2020 and 2022, the Russian made it to the quarterfinals of the French Open, so he was unable to achieve his best results in Paris. The 27-year-old was able to rest his legs a bit in recent days, as Arthur Fils withdrew before their match in the third round.
He had previously defeated Adam Walton 7-6, 6-1, 7-6 and Llody Harris 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1. Rublev only converted three of 14 break points, so the match could have ended a little sooner.
The finalist of the Bitpanda Open in Hamburg, who lost the final to Flavio Cobolli, has not been able to impress at the major Masters tournaments this year. There have been no positive results.
At least this French Open is not ending in disaster, which is what happened to Rublev Down Under at the beginning of the year. He lost 6-7, 3-6, 6-7 to Joao Fonseca in the first round.
My Sinner Rublev tip
Will Jannik Sinner also make short work of Andrey Rublev? So far, the world number 1 has had no problems at all in Paris, especially in the third round, which he breezed through. His serve? It couldn’t be better.
Sinner generally enjoys playing Rublev, and the Russian was lucky that Arthur Fils was unable to compete in the last round. Since I’m not really impressed with his form and Sinner simply has everything under control, my prediction is:
Sinner will win easily against Rublev!
