US Open, quarter-finals, Wednesday, 04.09.2024, 19:00
Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvdev are definitely the top match in the US Open men’s quarter-finals, with the world number one being challenged by the number five. It is already the third Grand Slam duel this year! Current score: 1:1.
Who will get a ticket to the last four and take on Jack Draper or Alex De Minaur? The favorite is Italy’s most popular athlete, but as in the first two Major matches, I expect a tough battle first and foremost
If you want to watch the quarter-final between Sinner and Medvedev, you shouldn’t make any plans for afterwards. Given the match times, however, that shouldn’t be a problem anyway, at least not for nocturnal tennis fans.
Because when Sinner and Medvedev meet, longer rallies with changing momentum are the order of the day. They spent around four hours on court in Melbourne and Wimbledon in two five-set thrillers.
While Sinner made a mega comeback in the final of the Australian Open and celebrated his first Grand Slam title, the “Octopus” returned the favor on the hallowed turf. Nuances make the difference between victory and defeat in this matchup
That’s why I prefer to stay away from the odds, which are further apart than I thought. Sinner is very clearly favored in the Oddset app with 1.40.
Medvedev is already considered the underdog with 2.95. Rightly so? Ultimately, Sinner made a huge leap in performance last winter, no question.
At the same time, he is facing someone who has reached at least the semi-finals in seven of the last hard court majors and reached the final in the last two tournaments.
Due to his good stamina, strong nerves and ability to play to the maximum at the big tournaments, Medvedev is always one of the tournament favorites on hardcourt. After his direct elimination in Montreal and Cincinnati, the bookmakers took a cautious approach. It is now clear that he could go far again
He has swept his last opponents off the court in three sets, but after victories over Fabian Marozsan, Flavio Cobolli and Nuno Borges, he has yet to face a big opponent. Overall, the man is in good form, with a good serve, but also shines in long, tricky rallies.
He has made 23 breaks in the last three rounds. My 3:0 tip against Borges was a complete success. My colleague Isabella targeted the same odds for Sinner against Tommy Paul and hit odds above the 2.00 mark.
After a brief stumbling start in the first match after the doping case was announced in March, Sinner also won against Tommy Paul. Mackenzie McDonald took the South Tyrolean by surprise, who then drastically raised his level of play.
Two three-setters, but now the series was to be broken. I think it’s unlikely that one of the two superstars will go all the way for many reasons
Since nuances make the difference, the smallest drops in performance and improvements in the match decide points, games and set wins.
The past duels have taught us that, with both players taking a set in four of the last five matches.
I also see Medvedev and Sinner as being almost on the same level in terms of “form”; I rate Sinner as slightly stronger, but I wouldn’t have given him odds below 1.50.
As an alternative to the over 3.5 sets, you could also consider an over-play bet or tiebreak odds. Betano delivers a 1.72 for a 7-6 outcome in the match. With six tiebreaks in the past six matches, this is a hot bet
My Sinner Medvedev tip
Sinner versus Medvedev, clap the 13th! The former number one still leads the direct duel against the current world number one with 7:5, but has lost five of the last seven against a man from northern Italy who has matured in the meantime. Will the next defeat follow?
Last year’s US Open finalist is at least seen as a clear underdog. In view of his current form, the odds gap is a little too big for me, but that suits me just fine, as the 3:0 Sinner win is rated a little more realistically and the over 3.5 sets bet remains quite high.
In the last two Grand Slam duels, they have played tennis at eye level over five sets. The current form of both players speaks for the next marathon match at the very high level of tennis!
My Sinner Medvedev tip: Over 3.5 sets
