Wimbledon, quarter-finals, Tuesday, 09.07.2024, 14:30
Top match in the Wimbledon quarter-finals! Jannik Sinner meets Daniil Medvedev, the number one against the number five in the world. Both have one Grand Slam title under their belt and are aiming for the second. However, the Russian is not one of the top favorites.
He is also the clear underdog in the match against Sinner, but I think he can win the set. Winamax still has strong odds for this bet. It won’t be a walkover against the defensive artist from Moscow
The yield from the first Wimbledon rounds is certainly impressive. The first three Zverev predictions were just as successful and I gave you odds on three of the four Sinner matches that led to success.
I want to build on this in the quarter-finals, where Sinner will face his toughest opponent to date, Medvedev. The two stars know each other well, they have already played eleven duels and at first glance Medvedev has an even 6:5 record.
However, the South Tyrolean has won all five of his matches in a row and has not been beaten by the Russian, whom he previously only faced on hard court, since the final in Rotterdam 2023.
Sinner and Medvedev contested the final of the Australian Open this year. Sinner made an impressive comeback from 2-0 down in sets to claim his first major title
It was also the only encounter at Grand Slam level, until now in the quarter-finals of Wimbledon, in which Sinner starts as the favorite at odds of around 1.20, while the top betting providers give Medvedev odds of around 4.60. A logical classification?
Given Sinner’s mega year, yes, but I’m pleased that the odds for Medvedev to win the set are already above 1.50 as a result. The world number one has won 42 of the 45 matches he has played and has yet to lose on grass.
Medvedev also has a strong record, but has not been able to play his way into the limelight since the start of the clay court season. Like Sinner, he is at his best on hardcourts.
The quarter-final in Madrid was still his best result, at the French Open he lost in the last 16 to Alex De Minaur. The transition to the green was slow, he lost to Zhizhen Zhang in round two of Halle
In his six grass matches so far, he has always won at least one set. At Wimbledon, he started with a smooth win against Aleksandar Kovacevic and also had no problems against Alexandre Muller.
He then defeated Jan-Lennard Struff, who was able to raise his level in the end, but lost the tie-break in the fourth set and thus the match.
The round of 16 was more comfortable for Medvedev. Shortly before the end of the first set, Grigor Dimitrov had to retire due to knee problems. The Bulgarian had previously slipped on the sacred grass, a bitter end to the tournament.
Despite his height of 1.98 meters, it is not primarily his serve but his return game that Medvedev excels at. He has already secured 14 breaks in twelve sets. In the ATP’s pure return statistics, he is practically on a par with Sinner.
The stars are also on a par when it comes to winning percentage on grass over their entire careers, both have a value of 69 percent. I don’t expect the match to be evenly matched, but the figures and Sinner’s first Wimbledon rounds show that Medvedev’s set win is very realistic.
Although he won his last two matches against Miomir Kecmanovic and Ben Shelton outright, he was trailing by a break against the American in the third round. Matteo Berrettini and Yannick Hanfmann combined for six breaks. Both secured a set.
And Medvedev is a completely different caliber when playing against his opponent’s serve. The Russian failed to win a set in only two of eleven direct duels.
At Winamax, you can bet on Medvedev winning the set with 200 euros without risk of loss. As part of Euro 2024, new customers can collect 200 euros in free bet credit. The free bet amount depends on the deposit amount. You can withdraw the winnings directly. The real money deposited only needs to be wagered at 1.05 before withdrawal
My Sinner Medvedev tip
Medvedev still leads the Head-2-Head against Sinner with 6:5, but he has lost the last five games. The South Tyrolean has improved his game considerably in the last three quarters. However, he was not infallible in the first few rounds. Berrettini in particular gave him a close fight.
Medvedev is one of the best return players on tour and has strong defensive qualities, which he proved once again with 14 breaks in twelve Wimbledon sets. He has won at least one game against Sinner in nine out of eleven matches.
Both players have won 69 percent of their career grass court matches, Medvedev may have flown under the radar on clay, but he is a threat to all players on the speed courts. I definitely think he can take a set in the Australian Open final duel, my odds to land the fourth hit in my fifth Sinner Wimbledon prediction!
My Sinner Medvedev tip: Set win Medvedev
