Wimbledon, 3rd round, Friday, 05.07.2024, 12:00
It was a tough battle, but in the end Jannik Sinner prevailed in the Italian duel against the 2021 Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini. Sinner had to go into a tie-break three times in the four-set victory. Will he have such a tough time against Kecmanovic?
In my prediction for the Italian’s second round match, I successfully opted for Berrettini to win the set. This time, I’m expecting a clear-cut victory for the favorite in my Kecmanovic match. The 3:0 brings a hefty odds on the betting slip at Bet365.
In addition to many thrilling third-round matches at Wimbledon, the quarter-finals of the European Championships 2024 start today
Sinner spent over three hours on court against his compatriot Berrettini. The Roman made life difficult for the number one over several phases, was ahead with a break in the second round, but was only able to win the third round at the end.
Sinner took all three tiebreaks and thus secured his ticket to the last sixteen. There he will face Kecmanovic (10.0), who has double-digit odds with the top betting providers.
Sinner is at around 1.05, while the 3:0 bet at 1.63 at Bet365 is worthwhile. Especially as Bet365 is one of the betting providers without taxes, leaving you five percent more profit! The -1.5 set handicap is just 1.12. But is 1.63 the right choice? After all, the Australian Open champion needed four sets in the first two rounds
In my eyes, a three-set win against Kecmanovic is clearly the most realistic outcome. In Hanfmann and Berrettini, Sinner was up against two players with strong serves, who get through all their service games smoothly and can thus exert pressure when Sinner has to swing open.
Kecmanovic does not have the most dangerous shots. Sinner will find it easier to return the balls and he only concedes a few himself. The Serb got off to a good start with a 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win against Sumit Nagal.
This was followed by a comeback against Tallon Griekspoor (4-6, 7-6, 1-6, 6-2, 6-3). Kecmanovic has dropped four service games in each of his two matches and now an even stronger defensive player awaits with Sinner
I clearly assume that Kecmanovic will be repeatedly challenged by Sinner, who is currently ranked third in the ATP service rating. Kecmanovic is only ranked 55th, having won significantly fewer points on his first and second serves and having served through.
Grass has also been his weakest surface in the past and his record is negative with 19 wins from 39 matches. The third round of Wimbledon 2022 was his greatest success to date. He also reached the quarter-finals of Eastbourne in 2023 and this year.
After successes against Zhizhen Zhang and Sebastian Baez, he lost outright in two sets to Max Purcell. Prior to that, he suffered two first round defeats against Griekspoor and Lorenzo Sonego in s’Hertogenbosch and Halle
And Sinner? He has always gone far at Wimbledon in recent years. He made another leap in performance last fall, reached the final of the ATP Finals and finally won his first major in Melbourne this year. With 40 wins from 44 matches, he now also leads the world rankings.
He has only lost three times. He was not on court for the fourth defeat due to injury. The last time Carlos Alcaraz beat him was in the semi-finals of the French Open. A few weeks later, Sinner celebrated his first grass court title in Halle.
He also had plenty to cheer about in the direct duels against Kecmanovic. 3:0 in the Head2Head, at the ATP Next Gen Finals Kecmanovic was able to take a set from him, in 2021 the Italian won outright. In the third match, Sinner was also heading for a flawless victory before his opponent had to retire
My Sinner Kecmanovic tip
Kecmanovic was a welcome opponent for Sinner in the past. The South Tyrolean generally dominates matches against opponents who do not get many free points with their serves.
This allows Sinner to fight his way into rallies time and again. After Hanfmann and Berrettini, I expect the world number one to get his first clean sweep in the third match at Wimbledon.
Sinner will lose the odd service game, but at the same time he will be able to put Kecmanovic under constant pressure. He is clearly the better player, especially on a surface on which Kecmanovic has not been able to make a mark so far.
My Sinner Kecmanovic tip: Sinner wins 3:0
