US Open, Final Tip, Sunday, 08.09.2024, 20:00
One was one of the big favorites from the start, the other has reached a Grand Slam final for the first time in his career. Or as you could put it before the final of the US Open 2024: There is a very clear opinion from the bookies!
Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz will face each other for the third time on Sunday evening and everyone agrees that it can only be the South Tyrolean who will be the winner.
A prediction that I can agree with at first glance. And … at second glance too! That’s why I’m going to tell you in my detailed Sinner Fritz tip why I’m betting that the favorite will not only win the match, but also the often decisive first set
There has been a lot of discussion about Jannik Sinner. Discussions that were not about his extremely strong sporting year in 2024, but about an unsightly doping story. Quite a few people wondered whether this might be interfering with his concentration.
The South Tyrolean provided us with the answer to this, which, as we all know, lies on the pitch, from day one. He didn’t fight his way into the final, he easily played his way into the big final round after round!
At times it even seemed as if he was taking a stroll. In the semi-final against Jack Draper he had won 7-5, 7-6, 6-3, before that he had beaten Daniil Medvedev 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4.
This little wobble in the second set was the only one the South Tyrolean allowed himself at all. And it wasn’t as if he was simply given easy opponents, as Tommy Paul had already been drawn in the round of 16
But
Sinner didn’t care much about all that. He kept his nerve even in close matches like the one against Paul, when his 7-6, 7-6, 6-1 win in the first two sets was a little bit on the edge.
I will leave out the first three victories, which Sinner won easily and casually against less strong opponents, in my further analysis. How was his service quality, for example?
Let’s put it this way: Good, but still not quite as perfect as we have already seen from the Italian. The points he won on his first serve, for example, only just exceeded 80 percent once in the last three matches.
Successful first serves? On average just over half! Sinner also converted around a third of his break chances, but conceded 16 against Draper, Medvedev and Paul
It simply seems as if the 23-year-old always gives exactly what he has to give in order to win, without overdoing it. What about direct duels against Taylor Fritz?
There was one match each in 2021 and 2023, so the two haven’t actually met very often. Both times, by the way, the match took place in Indian Wells. Now I look over to our bookmakers to see how they rate the pairing.
It’s clear that Sinner is favored, with the odds averaging 1.25 to 3.75. If you want to take a little more risk at Winamax, you can pick up odds of 2.50 for a 3-0 Sinner win.
Taylor Fritz has to live with the fact that he is labeled as the underdog. No wonder, after all, he has reached a Grand Slam final for the first time ever, and in front of his own fans!
He definitely had to push his limits more than Sinner, recently in the semi-final against Frances Tiafoe he needed five sets, winning 4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 in the end, only tightening the reins at the end.
It was his first five-setter, but he had to go through four sets in the previous rounds. 7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 against Alexander Zverev and 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 against Casper Ruud, he has really left a few grains in the last few days.
Nevertheless, the US-American is playing a strong tournament overall. 97% of his first serves went in against Tiafoe, in the last three matches against really strong opponents the total of points won on the first serve was over 80% on average.
He had given Ruud, Zverev and Tiafoe 15 break chances, something he will probably not be allowed to do against Sinner. For the first time since 2006, an American is back in the final, and it couldn’t be better for the fans
My Sinner Fritz tip
For Taylor Fritz, reaching the final of the US Open was a lifelong dream come true and he will probably leave his whole heart on the court. Knowing full well that the world number 1 is waiting opposite him.
Jannik Sinner didn’t show any weakness at this tournament, losing a single set against Daniil Medvedev. I don’t think Fritz will be able to keep up with him, not least because he has lost the first set in two of his last three matches. That’s why my final tip is now:
Sinner wins the first set and also the match!
