ATP Finals in Turin, Final, Sunday, 17.11.2024, 18:00
Final match at the ATP Finals. Alexander Zverev missed out on the final after narrowly losing to Taylor Fritz. The US-American will now have to play Jannik Sinner again, against whom he has already played the final of the US Open and a duel in the group stage in Turin.
Although Fritz lost that match, he didn’t play a bad game and only scored ten points fewer than the number one. I expect Sinner to win again, but after Fritz’s strong semi-final match yesterday it shouldn’t be too clear-cut.
That’s why I’m going for the Fritz win with a game advantage of + 4.5. Tipwin offers this market!
Sinner is storming towards the next big title in 2024. The man who celebrated 50 hard court wins from 53 matches this year has now also reached the final of the ATP Finals.
As expected, he was several classes better than his surprise semi-final opponent Casper Ruud. He defeated the Norwegian 6-1, 6-2 and can play the final in Turin just like last year; in 2023, he faced Novak Djokovic and was considered a slight underdog.
This time, he is the clear favorite and has odds of 1.09 at Bet365, while his opponent Fritz has been assigned 6.00. Even the 2:0 for Sinner is just 1.41.
Not really attractive odds for Sinner, who, as in the previous games as a northern Italian, has a clear home game in Turin. At Bet365 you can watch the final live on stream!
A betting configurator is also available for tennis at Bet365. If you combine the “No tiebreak” bet with the 2:0 for Sinner, you get a 2.10, which looks much better. But will Sinner fly through like he did in the previous matches?
A lot depends on Fritz, of course. Against Zverev, he showed an impressive first serve percentage of 71 percent. He had already secured 30 out of 38 possible points against Sinner with this.
In the end, he lost 4-6, 4-6 in a fairly close match. Sinner, who consistently plays at an extremely high level, brings a lot of sharpness into the rallies, delivering prayerful shots with dangerous lengths and angles.
He is one of the best return and defensive players and also has strong service values. More dangerous, however, is Fritz’s first, with which he will secure many match wins. What also sets Sinner apart is his mentality.
With a score of 258, he clearly leads the ATP’s Under Pressure Rating, he fends off the most break points in percentage terms, is one of the most efficient with his own break chances and is also right up there with a tiebreak win rate of 75 percent.
He won the Australian and US Open in 2024 and is still unbeaten in nine indoor matches. Most recently, he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the 500 tournament in Beijing.
He leads the duel against Fritz 3:1, before the group match they met in the final of New York, Fritz only became more competitive towards the end of the match, ultimately missing out on his big dream in three sets.
He only won his first match against Sinner in Indian Wells, but that was three years ago. In 2021, Sinner was not yet at the level he is today, but the current number one made a huge leap in performance in the transition to last winter.
In 2023, he beat Fritz for the first time, but needed three sets.
After the strong semi-final match against Zverev, who recently won the Masters in Paris and reached the semi-finals without losing a set, I think he can make the match a little closer than the bookmakers expect.
My Sinner Fritz tip
Sinner has reached the final without losing a set and without a tiebreak, and he has already played Fritz in the group stage. He was better in the decisive moments, but the American sold himself dearly.
I liked Fritz even better in the semi-final against Zverev. He hit his first serve successfully over the net with a whopping 71 percent success rate, which was already a dangerous weapon against Sinner.
With his new-found confidence, I think he can hold his own against Sinner for long stretches and the sets will be very close. On average, the Californian gave away just 1.25 service games per match at the finals.
My Sinner Fritz ATP Finals tip: Victory Fritz (+4.5 Games-HC)
