ATP Masters in Rome, Final, Sunday, 18.05.2025, 8:30 p.m.
The dream final is set! Today, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will face each other at the Rome Masters – the world number 1 will play against the number 2 (which Alcaraz will be again after the tournament), it couldn’t be better.
Both are showing their best form in the Eternal City. Now it’s time for a direct duel, and I can already tell you this much: although the Spaniard has won the last three matches against his opponent, he is only the underdog this time.
In my Sinner Alcaraz tip, I would now like to reveal to you the little details that will matter in this match and why I am convinced that we will see three sets here.
Jannik Sinner is making a comeback that falls into the “why not?” category. The South Tyrolean is finally back in action after his doping ban, and he hasn’t lost his top spot in the world rankings anyway.
His first appearances after his triumph at the Australian Open have been impressive, and he clearly hasn’t lost his rhythm. After mandatory victories against Mariano Navone (6-3, 6-4) and Jesper de Jong (6-4, 6-2), he initially gave Francisco Cerundolo no chance, winning 7-6, 6-3.
Sinner delivered his masterpiece in the quarterfinals, sweeping Casper Ruud, who had won the Madrid Masters just a few days earlier, 6-0, 6-1! The world number 1 went into the semifinals against Tommy Paul in the best possible shape.
The match started with a nasty surprise, as he lost the first set 1-6. However, it was only a brief wobble, because the 23-year-old ultimately advanced to the final with a confident 1-6, 6-0, 6-3 victory.
He allowed three breaks, which was quite remarkable. Sinner has now won 26 matches in a row, but he knows that improving his performance against Paul took a lot of energy.
Is a blister under his foot a cause for concern? “If I want to win on Sunday, I have to play my best tennis. But I’m not worried. I have to be careful, that’s not supposed to be an excuse. I’ll be 100 percent ready.”
He knows that matches against Carlos Alcaraz are tough. The two have met ten times already, with Sinner currently trailing 4-6. Alcaraz won the last three encounters.
7-6, 4-6, 6-7 and 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 3-6 – the two most recent results show how close it is between these two world-class players. Let’s take a look at our ApplePay bookmakers.
There, history is not quite so important, with Sinner going into the match as the favorite with average odds of 1.70 to 2.20. Alcaraz will not care about that at all, as his performances here in Rome have been almost flawless.
In the semifinals, he eliminated Zverev’s conqueror Lorenzo Musetti 6-3, 7-6, after Jack Draper had previously lost to him 4-6, 4-6. The Spaniard faltered a little against Karan Khachanov, but won 6-3, 3-6, 7-5.
Laslo Djere (7-6, 6-2) and Dusan Lajovic (6-3, 6-3) were eliminated in the first rounds. Now, of course, the question arises: Who had the tougher opponents, who put in the more solid performances?
Alcaraz benefited in the semi-finals from Musetti not having his best day – he had 14 break points. Looking at the first serves and the points won, he only had a percentage of over 70% in the first round.
The 22-year-old should be warned and perhaps think back to Barcelona. That’s where he lost the final to Holger Rune, meaning he has “only” won two titles this year.
While this is only Alcaraz’s second appearance at the Rome Masters after 2023 (when he was knocked out in the round of 16), Jannik Sinner has already made several appearances. However, he has not yet made it past the quarterfinals.
My Sinner Alcaraz tip
Tennis fans in Rome will get to see exactly the final they wanted on Sunday. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have each dropped one set in the tournament so far, which speaks for consistency.
For me personally, the two are absolutely on par, and the break from competition hasn’t hurt the South Tyrolean. Since the majority of their direct duels, especially the most recent ones, have been incredibly close, I’m going with the following prediction:
We’ll see three sets!
