Italian Open in Rome, 1st Round, Tuesday, 10.05.2022
Will the Italian Open in Rome have a winner other than Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic for the first time since 2017? Of course, this duo is once again among the absolute top favourites at this year’s tournament.
However, Djokovic also has a compatriot in his luggage who wants to convince in Rome and meets a clay specialist out of form in his 1st round. Read my Schwartzman Kecmanovic tip to find out why I don’t have much confidence in the Argentinean this time either.
Will Diego Schwartzman manage to get back into form before the French Open? The 1.70m Argentine has been a big player on clay for years, but this year he is surprisingly struggling.
In Madrid, he struggled to beat Benoit Paire in three sets, but was given a real lesson by Grigor Dimitrov when he lost 0-6, 3-6. 42% won points on the first serve, the performance was more than poor.
I wonder if Schwartzman is not quite fit. In mid-April, reaching the quarter-finals of Monte Carlo was not bad, he was eliminated in three sets against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Before that, however, the Argentine had not defeated any really strong opponents.
I also chalk up a semi-final in Barcelona as a success, but not as a real signal to the competition. After the cancelled tournament in Estoril came the embarrassment of Madrid and with it the question of how his fitness really is.
First strong, then chanceless, that’s exactly what Schwartzman showed in the eternal city. In 2019, he lost a three-set semi-final to Novak Djokovic, then a year later he was even in the final.
After wins against Hubert Hurkacz, Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov, it was once again the Djoker who denied him success. What happened in 2021? You can certainly lose to Felix Auger-Aliassime, but not 1-6, 3-6!
So what Diego Schwartzman can call up these days remains a bit of a mystery. He leads 2-0 in the direct comparison against Miomir Kecmanovic, won both duels narrowly.
The Serb wants to prevent a negative series as he is threatened with a third exit in the 1st round in Rome. He has never been able to win a match here outside of the qualifiers.
Although his tournament in Madrid ended quite early, the 22-year-old still managed to attract attention. First he beat Alexander Bublik, then he almost won a set at 1-6, 6-7 against Rafael Nadal.
In Munich, Kecmanovic made it to the semi-finals, where he narrowly lost to Botic van de Zandschulp. A near win against Novak Djokovic in Belgrade and wins against Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz in Miami?
Plus a straight sets win over Carlos Alcaraz, a success over Matteo Berrettini from Indian Wells? He has probably never been as strong as Kecmanovic has been serving in the last few weeks!
My Schwartzman Kecmanovic Tip
Diego Schwartzman hasn’t put in the big performances yet this year, in Rome he can do everything from finals to over embarrassment. After my analysis, I have to conclude anyway: I recognise the more stable form with Miomir Kecmanovic.
In the past months, he has beaten some greats, won sets against top stars and fought his way further and further up the rankings.
Therefore I bet: Kecmanovic gets the win!
