Australian Open 2025, Final, Saturday, 01/25/2025, 9:30 a.m.
Admittedly, some of you might have wished for a different final – but when the runner-up of the Australian Open is the one who beats the number 2 of the world in a dramatic semi-final, then another player is in the final, and fully deserves to be there!
We are in the home stretch at the Australian Open, with the women competing in the Grand Final on Saturday. The participants: on the left, the big favorite for the title, the world number 1, and on the right, a woman who played her only GS final so far in 2017 but lost.
Based on this brief description, you can probably already guess who is ahead here. And lo and behold: I also decided to bet on a clear favorite’s victory in my Sabalenka Keys tip!
She was the absolute top favorite from the start, so many people actually only asked themselves one question: would Aryna Sabalenka march into the final without losing a set?
Well, she didn’t quite make it, because in the quarterfinals against Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova she actually lost a set, 6-2, 2-6, 6-3. Otherwise, the world number one had a tournament to suit her.
Sloane Stephens (6-3, 6-2), Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (6-3, 7-6), Clara Tauson (7-6, 6-4) and Mirra Andreyeva (6-1, 6-2) were all dispatched by the time the quarterfinals came around, with the Belarusian only faltering briefly against Tauson.
In the semi-finals, the highest-ranked opponent, Paula Badosa, was waiting. The world number twelve was ultimately without a chance, as Sabalenka cruised to a 6-4, 6-2 victory. Now, of course, we have to note: she never had to play an opponent from the top 10.
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And at the same time, all the tennis fans among you should also know: Madison Keys herself does not belong to the most elite circle either. Sabalenka is the double title defender in Melbourne, having topped the 2023 and 2024 draws.
The last US Open also went to the world number 1, and before the Australian Open began, she naturally won in Brisbane too. Is there any way Madison Keys can hope to match history?
The two players have met five times so far, with Sabalenka triumphing four times. Interestingly, in 2023, their paths crossed twice on the Grand Slam stage, once at Wimbledon and the other time in New York.
On the hallowed turf, Sabalenka secured a 6-2, 6-4 victory, but at the US Open, she delivered a damn curious match. After a disastrous 0-6 in the first set, she suddenly came back to win two tiebreaks.
Of course, she would prefer to save her energy this time. According to our Apple Pay bookmakers, she has little to worry about, as she is seen as the clear favorite with odds of 1.30 to 3.50.
Madison Keys, ranked 14th in the world, reached a Grand Slam final just once in 2017, at the home tournament in New York. She had no chance against Sloane Stephens that day, losing 3-6, 0-6.
Keys started this Australian Open with a 6-4, 7-6 win against fellow countrywoman Ann Li, and from then on, a number of tough matches awaited her. For example, the one against Elena-Gabriela Ruse, which she won narrowly in round 2 with 7-6, 2-6, 7-5.
While the 6-4, 6-4 win against Danielle Collins was relatively clear, the real thrillers followed. Keys defeated Jelena Rybakina, a 2023 finalist here in Melbourne, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3.
Elina Svitolina, also no stranger to the big stage, was sent home after a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 defeat. And finally, the big semi-final was waiting, in which she faced none other than Iga Swiatek.
The former dominator, who has since been replaced by Aryna Sabalenka in many respects, won the first set 7-5, but Keys was by no means intimidated. The quick 6-1 meant the equalizer.
And how could it have been otherwise, the match tiebreak had to bring the decision! With 7-6 (10:8) it was actually Keys who triumphed, although she even had to fend off a match point in the meantime.
Was the great tournament of the US-American foreseeable? I would like to put it this way: The 29-year-old snatched the Adelaide preparation tournament from the number six in the world, Jessica Pegula!
Is Aryna Sabalenka in control on Saturday? It’s pretty hard not to assume that the world number 1 will grab her third consecutive title at the Australian Open.
She has only lost a single set in the tournament so far, and even Madison Keys had to push herself to her limits. Admittedly, the US player surprised on the positive side and beat Iga Swiatek, but Sabalenka is simply beating almost no one at the moment! So my tip is:
Sabalenka wins easily against Keys!
