Australian Open 2023, semi-final, Thursday, 26.01.2023
Actually, all the experts had only one favourite for the Australian Open 2023: Iga Swiatek, who else. But the Polish failed surprisingly early, so that the cards had to be reshuffled.
Now the player who sent Swiatek home is in the spotlight. Not without reason, after all, it was she who celebrated a triumph at Wimbledon a few months ago.
Is this also the reason for Bet365’s favourite role? I would like to explain that in my Rybakina Azarenka tip. I’ll also reveal what makes me consider the bet of Under 23.5 Games in the match.
Russian tennis players were not allowed to play in the 2022 Wimbledon tournament. While not everyone understood that decision, Elena Rybakina, a five-year starter for Kazakhstan, could almost care less.
The 23-year-old stormed to the title in a complete surprise and joined the ranks of the Grand Slam champions. She was not quite able to maintain this level, but the winter break has obviously done her a world of good.
Although she was not at all convincing in the preparatory tournaments in Adelaide, things are going like clockwork next door in Melbourne. Rybakina won both games against Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Kaja Juvan and had no difficulties at all.
She then dropped the first and so far only set of the tournament against Danielle Collins, winning 6-2, 5-7, 6-2. The round of 16 followed and the match that stunned the experts.
80% won points on first serve, this strength meant that Iga Swiatek was indeed without a chance. Against Jelena Ostapenko, the Kazakh again prevailed smoothly, was victorious with a 6-2, 6-4.
With an average of 80% points won on the first service, Rybakina is enormously strong, hardly any other woman reaches such a value. Her height of 1.84 metres should also help her on Thursday.
In Indian Wells last year, Rybakina faced Victoria Azarenka for the first and only time, her 6-3, 6-4 should give her momentum going into this semi-final. It is only the second time in her career that she has reached the top four at a Grand Slam.
It’s a slightly different story for Victoria Azarenka. The Belarusian is now 33 years old and has been competing on the big stage since 2006. Her list of successes is long, but she still likes to compete in Melbourne the most.
She won the title here in 2012 and 2013, but that was a long time ago. But what is interesting is that whenever she has reached a semi-final at the two hard-court Grand Slams (five times in total), she has won it.
At the current tournament, her performances so far have been quite surprising. After straight wins against Sofia Kenin and Nadia Podoroska, she knocked out the first top opponent, Madison Keys, albeit in three sets.
1-6, 6-2, 6-1, a performance improvement could hardly be clearer. She also made a comeback against Zhu Lin at 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. Azarenka saved her strongest performance for the quarter-finals against the highly rated Jessica Pegula.
The Belarusian won 6-4, 6-1 against the world number 3, hardly anyone had expected such a display of power! Although she is almost as tall as Rybakina at 1.83m, her service is far less drastic.
Five aces in the last four rounds, plus Azarenka has consistently fallen short of 65% won points on first serve in recent rounds. So will the match be decided on serve?
Both Elena Rybakina and Victoria Azarenka are showing their best sides in Australia. While the Kazakh scores with an excellent serve, Azarenka comes more through the struggle.
It’s not really typical for the women’s matches to go over three sets. I’m keeping my betting a wee bit less risky by not going for the sets, but rather the games completed.
Rybakina scores very clearly, even knocking Iga Swiatek out of the tournament in two straight sets.
Therefore, in the end, I decide on the following bet:
We see less than 23.5 games!
