ATP Finals, Group Stage, Tuesday, 15.11.2022
One of them is completely out of shape, the other one is only a latecomer – and yet one of them will be able to punch his ticket for the semi-finals of the ATP Finals! It is Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz who will face each other on Tuesday.
Both were able to win their first match and thus have the best chances to stay in Turin a little longer. The top favourites for the trophy, it’s actually neither one nor the other.
No experience, so what? Taylor Fritz is sniffing the air of the unofficial World Tennis Championships for the first time, never before having been among the top eight players at the end of a season.
Now, however, the 25-year-old has truly earned his participation. He had actually missed the qualification by a hair’s breadth, but since Carlos Alcaraz withdrew stricken, he was allowed to book his ticket to Turin.
Fritz had to play his very first finals match against former champion Rafael Nadal. The bookmakers had expected a very close match, but in the end the result was relatively clear.
And it was in Fritz’s favour! The world number 9 won the first set in a tiebreak, followed by a very convincing 6-1 in the second set. Nadal was simply without a chance, which only very few had expected.
And that although Fritz only used two of his nine break chances, he himself did not give his opponent a single one. 84% successful first serves, 80% won points on the first and even 88% on the second serve, his service came incredibly strong.
Also the fact that he made only one double fault showed how focused he is on the finals. Not everyone had expected a positive result, as the last few weeks have not always gone according to his wishes.
In Paris he had already lost in the 2nd round to Gilles Simon, before that in Vienna also in the second match to Denis Shapovalov. About a month ago in Japan things had gone better, Fritz had stormed to the title in always very close results.
In fact, this will be the first time ever that Fritz and Ruud meet directly. Will it help the American that he is 13 centimetres taller? At any rate, he is narrowly ahead at our bookies.
Casper Ruud is in the finals for the second time, in 2021 he reached the semi-finals after beating Cameron Norrie and Andrey Rublev. Here he suffered a relatively clear defeat against Daniil Medvedev.
Only a few people thought it would be possible for him to play a major role in 2022. His most recent tournaments have been very weak, with only two victories since the US Open.
While he was on the verge of winning the title in New York, he fell into a hole afterwards. In his first match in Italy, he finally faced Felix Auger-Aliassime, currently the most in-form player in the world.
An incredibly close exchange of strokes made both celebrate their serve, there was only one break chance in the whole match. It was Ruud who snatched it and took the minimal advantage to win 7-6, 6-4.
Now one may ask the question: Was it just a small runaway upwards or did the Norwegian save his last few grains for Turin in order to be able to finish the year with best performances?
Will someone become the secret favourite here? Taylor Fritz caused a stir with his clear victory over Rafael Nadal, so clearly not to be expected. That’s exactly the performance he needs now on Tuesday.
Casper Ruud surprised just as positively, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime, the player of the hour, after weak weeks. Both Ruud and Fritz did not give up a single break chance in their first match.
So I see them both on a par, but I think the American’s service is a bit better. Therefore, I decide on a single bet and recommend the following tip:
Fritz wins against Ruud!
