ATP Tournament in Hamburg, Quarter Finals, Friday, 28.07.2023
Seeded at position 1, among the best there is on clay – but still seemingly tired and a bit out of shape! At the ATP tournament in Hamburg, the best player is wobbling as he faces his quarter-final on Friday.
He gets a young opponent who is very defiant on the Elbe. Although the favourite roles are distributed at Bet-at-Home, as you can expect, but in my Ruud Fils tip I now reveal why I would bet on a Over 20.5 Games!
Was it a defeat that pushed him to his limits, both physically and mentally? Casper Ruud played a terrific French Open, losing the final to Novak Djokovic in three sets.
The red clay has always been his favourite surface, but the Norwegian was also hoping for strong performances on the much faster grass. He did without any preparation, competing solely at Wimbledon.
There he already failed in the 2nd round against Liam Broady. He didn’t want to brood about this defeat for long, after all, he was already allowed to return to the clay in Bastad. Success? That too almost returned!
He had no problems against Alexander Alexandrovich, Sebastian Ofner and Lorenzo Musetti before the final against Andrey Rublev. After a 6-7 in the first set, Ruud completely lost control and let himself be humiliated with a 0-6!
Only a few days after this humiliation, the 24-year-old started in Hamburg, and the strain is still noticeable today. In the opening match, he won with a lot of effort against Sebastian Baez, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 was the score on the scoreboard at the end of the match.
The tournament favourite did not fare much better against Cristian Garin, again needing three sets to win 1-6, 6-2, 6-2. At least one could give him credit here for coming back strongly after being clearly behind.
Ruud gave away a total of 16 break chances to his two opponents, the points won on the first serve only reached just over 60 percent. No question, for his second semi-final in Hamburg after 2020, a clear improvement in performance is needed.
He has never faced young Arthur Fils before, but our bettors, with average odds of 1.22 to 4.00, think that nothing should go wrong here.
Don’t underestimate Fils, though. The world number 71 is aiming for the top, in Lyon he attracted attention with his first tournament win, where he also beat Francisco Cerundolo and Brandon Nakashima.
In Hamburg, he celebrated two straight wins, but two that could have been overturned. A 7-5, 7-5 was the double result, Daniel Elahi Galan and Dusan Lajovic were defeated.
The stats regarding the serve are a little better than Ruud’s, as both players are almost the same size, this similarity could also stand out in the semi-final on Friday.
My Ruud Fils Tip
Do we have to remember the name Arthur Fils for good now? The Frenchman, who turned 19 a few weeks ago, is coming off a really strong result on his first appearance here on the Elbe.
Casper Ruud is of course individually the better player, but we noticed that he lost a lot of strength in the last matches. Twice three sets, before that the dismantling against Andrey Rublev, the Norwegian is shaking!
That’s why I’m sending in a tip that gives the underdog a chance to at least sniff at winning a set or a very close match once, and I’m typing!
We see more than 20,5 Games!
