Madrid Open, Final, Sunday, 04.05.2025, 6:30 p.m.
It’s final time in Madrid! Casper Ruud faces Jack Draper. I didn’t really expect this pairing, but it should be a very interesting match, in which I see clear advantages for the Brit.
In my Ruud Draper tip, I have therefore chosen a straight 2-0 win for Draper from Merkur Bets.
If the bet is successful, we will double the stake. I’ll tell you why I think this bet is a good one in the next few lines.
Draper has reached the top of the world. After winning his first 500 title in Vienna towards the end of last year, he claimed his first Masters triumph this year. In Indian Wells, he defeated hard court ace Taylor Fritz, high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz, and Holger Rune.
He now has his next 1000 final against a Scandinavian in the Spanish capital, and it will be a first. He will play his first official match against the 2022 and 2023 French Open finalist.
Draper is favored at odds of 1.45. Our PayPal betting providers have given his opponent odds of 2.75. I more or less agree with this assessment and would even have expected slightly lower odds for the man from the Western European island, who is three years younger.
At the same time, I would have liked to have gotten slightly higher odds for a simple win bet; in my opinion, 1.45 no longer offers enough value, except perhaps as part of a combination bet on an eventful Sunday.
In addition to many interesting soccer games, the F1 race in Miami is also on the schedule, for which I have also written a prediction.
I can recommend two options as single bets: Draper to win the first set and the match at 1.75, or 2:0, which at 2.05 is in a much more interesting odds range.
In my opinion, it’s worth taking the 2:0 and accepting the risk of losing a set in the second round.
Draper has not dropped a set so far in the tournament, defeating Tallon Griekspoor, Matteo Berrettini, Tommy Paul, Matteo Arnaldi, and Lorenzo Musetti. These were by no means easy tasks! Ruud is in no way inferior to him in terms of results, however.
Ruud also recorded five straight wins, which I did not expect against Taylor Fritz, Francisco Cerundolo, and Daniil Medvedev. Can he make another statement and win his first title after a long time?
While Draper is heading into his third 2025 final, Ruud has been waiting for a winner’s trophy since last May in Geneva. But as you know from my odds selection, the Norwegian, who is considered one of the nicest and fairest players on the tour, is likely to continue his dry spell.
I see a clear disadvantage in his serve quality. Against Zverev’s conqueror Francisco Cerundolo alone, he lost three service games from a whopping 18 break points. By comparison, Draper has conceded just two breaks in the entire tournament.
In the round of 16 and quarterfinals against Paul, he didn’t even have to defend a single break point. This consistency in his serve and aggressive follow-up, without producing a significant number of unforced errors, is likely to pose a difficult task for Ruud.
Musetti, who is one of the best returners but couldn’t get a foothold against Draper, can tell you a thing or two about that. So he has little to offer, while Ruud has lost three times as many service games in Madrid and is definitely more vulnerable.
His strengths also lie in long rallies, which are unlikely to occur too often against Draper. Draper loves to play boldly and is likely to stick to his style against a good opponent in the longer rallies.
My Ruud Draper tip
I see Draper ahead on Sunday. In the first rounds, he served much more consistently than Ruud and should be able to keep the points short with his powerful style against the Norwegian, who likes to make the difference in longer rallies with his top spin.
Another argument in Draper’s favor is his coolness in finals. While Ruud has lost eight of nine final matches at the 500 tournament level, Draper has won two of his three in this category.
In terms of win percentages in these thrilling matches, Draper has a 66.7 percent record, compared to a meager 11.1 percent for Ruud.
In the end, I expect Draper to grab a few breaks and once again give away very little, using his service advantage to his advantage in a tiebreak at the latest. Along with the top odds, don’t miss the current offer from Merkur Bets!
My Ruud Draper tip: 2:0 Draper
