ATP Estoril tournament, quarter-finals, Friday, 07.04.2023
The defending champion strikes again! In sunny Estoril, some players are starting the clay court season these days, the upcoming French Open of course already in the back of their minds. So now we look at the quarter-final of the man who triumphed here in 2022.
On Friday, he will face the best player in the tournament, which is why Bwin lists him as an underdog. Why the odds are still not too far apart and I don’t believe in a walk-through, I now reveal in my Ruud Baez tip!
The number 1 seed will meet the player who was crowned champion in 2022 – it’s too bad that these two will already meet in the quarter-finals in Estoril!
On Friday, only one of them will definitely advance, so our bettors are not quite sure yet who that will be. The average odds say Casper Ruud is ahead with 1.40 to 2.80.
A lead, but not one that rules out a different outcome. If only because the Norwegian has absolutely no form in 2023. He has only celebrated four victories in the entire year, waiting in vain for a strong tournament.
Moreover, it was not the best that he failed against. At the Australian Open it was Jenson Brooksby in round 2, in Acapulco Taro Daniel. Ruud’s condition did not improve on American soil either.
He first failed to beat Cristian Garin, while Botic van de Zandschulp was one size too big for him. Of course, one rightly wonders: what would happen if this Ruud met opponents like Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner or Novak Djokovic?
The victories that there were in 2023 were almost always very close. He defeated Tomas Machac, Guido Andreozzi, Diego Schwartzman and Ilya Ivashka, and often with more effort than expected.
Before Estoril, it was clear that Ruud had not managed to celebrate two victories in a row this year. It was almost over on Portuguese soil when he faced Joao Sousa in the opener.
In the end, the score was 4-6, 6-2, 6-2, without any slip-ups. He only used five of 18 break chances, unnecessarily wasted too much energy. Will that be his undoing against Sebastian Baez?
This is the first time the two have ever met and with the Argentinean you know: He comes through the fight! He is only 1.70 metres tall, which puts him at a disadvantage in almost every match.
Last year, he compensated for this supposed weakness in Estoril in the best possible way. Joao Sousa, Marin Cilic, Richard Gasquet, Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Frances Tiafoe? Not bad people by any means, whom he got out of the way here!
His clear 6-3, 6-2 win over Tiafoe had ensured the title, so Baez is all the more motivated now to even repeat his feat. Unlike Ruud, he has already had to play twice.
Although he has not yet lost a set, he has not really covered himself in glory with extremely close results. First he lost 7-5, 7-6 to Radu Albot, then 6-4, 7-6 to Pedro Cachin.
What was immensely strong in the round of 16 was that 89% of his first serve was successful! Baez has already managed to get through a second match in a tournament three times this year.
His best performance was in Cordoba, where he outplayed the entire competition and won the final against Federico Coria. Admittedly: At that time there were no players of Casper Ruud’s category, at least in normal form, competing.
My Ruud Baez tip
Actually, Casper Ruud is known as a strong man on clay, not for nothing he already knows what a final at the French Open feels like. But 2023 has not been his year at all so far, even the start in Estoril was slow.
Sebastian Baez, the defending champion, can play very unpleasantly. Since Ruud has not yet managed to celebrate two victories in a row this year, I expect a close affair and bet:
Baez wins at least one set!
