ATP Masters in Indian Wells, final, Sunday, 3/16/2025, 10:00 p.m.
Hand on heart: We really didn’t expect THIS final at the Masters in Indian Wells! Neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Alexander Zverev, both finalists, are currently in the top 10.
So in my Rune Draper tip, two players are facing each other who didn’t give any top 10 player a chance. The direct duel will be all the more interesting, because I’ll tell you now why I’m backing the Brit as the winner.
It could be one of the greatest moments of their careers for both of them, but I suspect Jack Draper is feeling a little more excitement. The young Brit, 23 years old, is sensationally in the final in Indian Wells.
Once in the round of 16, once out in round 1, after these two results he might not have expected his strong performance in 2025 himself, but there is really almost nothing to criticize.
After his 6-0, 6-4 opening win against Joao Fonseca, he won 7-5, 6-4 against Jenson Booksby. The really tough opponents were to come now, and Draper cleared them all out of his way.
First, he left Taylor Fritz no chance in a 7-5, 6-4 victory, then he beat Tommy Paul with the identical result. In the semi-finals, the reward (or punishment?) was a match against Carlos Alcaraz.
After Draper had won the first set 6-1, Alcaraz fought back to take the second 6-0. More than a few people now thought: Now the Spaniard will bring the thing home. But the final result was: 6-1, 0-6, 6-4!
At the decisive moment, Draper kept his nerve. He made four out of five break chances, an almost perfect rate. 3/5 and 3/4? In the rounds against the US players, Draper never let up on his opponent’s serve.
His break quota was over 50 percent in all matches. On his own serve, on the other hand, he is almost a little too erratic. Sometimes he wins 90% of the points on his first service, then it’s only 60.
The Qatar Open finalist is now playing against Holger Rune for the second time in his career. Last year, the paths of the two crossed in Cincinnati, with Rune prevailing 6-4, 6-2.
However, now that Draper has put Carlos Alcaraz, the big tournament favorite, in his place, he is the one who is ahead with our bookmakers with Apple Pay function. The average odds are 1.55 to 2.35.
Not too much of a lead, because Holger Rune hasn’t exactly taken nobodies out of the tournament either. In the semi-finals, he knocked out Daniil Medvedev 7-5, 6-4, after previously celebrating a 5-7, 6-0, 6-3 win against Tallon Griekspoor.
Stefanos Tsitsipas also lost to the young Dane, Rune won 6-4, 6-4. For the sake of completeness: in the first rounds, the results were 5-7, 6-4, 7-5 against Ugo Humbert and 6-2, 6-4 against Corentin Moutet.
So the bottom line is that the 21-year-old had to spend a few more minutes on the court, but twice came back strongly after losing the first set. Against Medvedev, he took three of his four break chances to secure the win.
The fact that Rune is now appearing in the final does surprise me a little after the last few weeks. Since the Australian Open, where he was knocked out in the round of 16 by Jannik Sinner, he had only won two matches.
So after his Indian Wells quarter-final in 2024, he has now achieved his best result. Incidentally, Rune has already won a Masters title in 2022 and was at the top in Paris.
My Rune Draper Tip
Holger Rune or Jack Draper, which of the two surprise finalists will prevail late Sunday night? I was equally impressed by both of them, especially after they knocked out some big names in the semi-finals.
However, Draper left me with the even more confident impression, not least because of his victory against Carlos Alcaraz. That’s why I decided to make the following prediction:
Draper wins the Masters of Indian Wells!
