Wimbledon, Round of 16, Sunday, 06.07.2025, 5:30 p.m.
Former child prodigy, now a Grand Slam title collector – anyone who wants to win Wimbledon in 2025 will probably have to get past Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard has already had a few wobbles in London, so betting recommendations for clear-cut victories should be checked carefully.
In my Rublev Alcaraz tip, I’m faced with a picture that’s not easy to analyze. On the left is a faltering giant, on the right is someone who isn’t exactly in top form. Accordingly, I’d like to tell you in detail why I’ve decided to bet on over 3.5 sets here.
He is the two-time defending champion at Wimbledon, the man who beat Jannik Sinner after trailing 0-2 in an epic French Open final, the one the bookmakers have at the top of their list for the 2025 trophy.
Carlos Alcaraz must once again deal with the pressure of being the hunted in the English capital. We actually know the 22-year-old as having strong nerves, but it wouldn’t have taken much for him to be eliminated in the first round of Wimbledon!
He had to show all his class against Fabio Fognini to avoid elimination. In the end, it was 7-5, 6-7, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1, which cost Alcaraz some nerves. Nine double faults, 21 break points against him – by his standards, that was nothing.
In the second round, Alcaraz was able to recover somewhat from the unexpected thriller, defeating Oliver Tarvet 6-1, 6-4, 6-4. But the same applies here: eleven break points conceded? That’s too many.
Unfortunately, from a German perspective, it was still enough to advance against Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round. Here, Alcaraz played his strongest match so far, winning 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
And yet, the matches Alcaraz has played on the hallowed turf leave a few questions unanswered. In Queens, he had prepared perfectly for Wimbledon after his FO triumph, winning the tournament straight away.
There were no gala performances here. The results: 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 against Jaume Munar, 7-5, 6-4 against Arthur Rinderknech, 6-4, 6-4 against Roberto Bautista-Agut and 7-5, 6-7, 6-2 against Jiri Lehecka – nothing was that clear!
So anyone betting on a landslide victory for the Spaniard on Sunday should be warned. Andrey Rublev has faced him three times so far, with a narrow 2-1 lead in their head-to-head record.
I probably don’t need to tell you that the odds don’t reflect that. 1.08 to 7.90, of course the tax-free betting providers are on the Spanish side.
Andrey Rublev will certainly not have been happy with his draw for the round of 16, as 2023 was the only year he ever made it to the last eight in London.
After a rather disappointing warm-up tournament in Queens, where Rublev was knocked out in the second round by Tomas Martin Etcheverry, the Russian is not among the favorites for the title at Wimbledon.
Rublev played a turbulent match against Laslo Djere, ultimately winning 6-0, 7-6, 6-7, 7-6. It was a crazy result; after storming through the first set, the tiebreaks seemed never-ending.
A little later, he faced Lloyd Harris, and here too, the match was anything but boring, ending 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-3. Against Adrian Mannarino in round 3, however, the 27-year-old finally secured a smooth victory.
He won 7-5, 6-2, 6-3, conceding only one break. Overall, his serve wasn’t bad, with an average of over 80 percent of points won on his first serve.
With only one break against him in the entire tournament, Rublev has been impressive, but five tiebreaks also show a certain vulnerability. Incidentally, the tiebreak bet is priced at 1.70 at Bet365.
My Rublev Alcaraz tip
Is Carlos Alcaraz facing an early exit from Wimbledon? Admittedly, I didn’t expect him to struggle so much before the tournament started. He has already dropped three sets, and his warm-up matches were also rather close.
Now, Andrey Rublev is not an opponent who is in phenomenal form. However, given the Spaniard’s results, I still expect a very interesting match that could go on for a while. Therefore, my prediction is:
We’ll see more than 3.5 sets!
