Miami Open, 1st Round, Wednesday, 22/03/2023
Oscar Otte continues to be in crisis. After his strong summer 2022 on clay and grass, the Cologne player has hit a slump in form.
He has now slipped from world number 36 to number 85.
He is now making his next attempt against Brandon Nakashima in the first round of the Miami Open.
But why the US American is probably not the right opponent to initiate a turnaround, I reveal in my Otte Nakashima tip.
The year 2023 has started miserably for Oscar Otte. Twelve times the player from Cologne stood on the court, only three times he left the court as a winner.
Only against Dalibor Svrcina (7-6, 6-2) in the opening match on New Year’s Day in Adelaide, against Christopher Eubanks (6-4, 4-6, 6-2) in Dallas and against Laslo Djere (6-3, 7-5) in Indian Wells was he able to prevail.
The other results, however, give German tennis fans a stomach ache. At the first Masters of the year, he lost to Karen Khachanov (3-6, 3-6). In the subsequent Phoenix Challenger, the first appearance meant the end of the line.
From the outside, the match looked listless. He conceded a break early in both sets and made numerous unforced errors. The weak performance was rounded off by six double faults.
His opponent Alexei Popyrin had an easy game and won 91 percent of the points played after the first serve.
Otte offered more resistance in the second round at Indian Wells. However, he only managed three break opportunities, one of which he used. In return, however, Khachanov managed four.
In this match, the yield after first serves was astonishingly low, with only 44 percent of the respective attempts being used to score points.
Otte is an underdog against Brandon Nakashima due to his ongoing slump in form. At Bet-at-home, the odds are 3.10, so the US player is the favourite with odds of 1.35.
For a win without losing a set, the odds are 1.98. If you don’t want to commit to a winner in a two-set bet, you can also bet on “Exactly 2 sets” and get odds of just under 1.50 for this.
Nakashima is one of the biggest young talents on the tour. In 2022 he won the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan, beating Jack Draper and Jiri Lehecka among others.
Similar to Otte, he didn’t really get rolling in 2023, played only half as many matches as the German and won only two of his six matches.
In Adelaide (vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2-7, 6-7) and Melbourne (vs Mackenzie McDonald 6-7, 6-7, 6-1, 7-6, 4-6), he was already eliminated after round one.
A win over Daniel Altmaier (6-3, 3-6, 6-1) followed at the end of February, before McDonald (2-6, 0-6) was again the final stop for the 21-year-old.
At the Masters in Indian Wells, he first beat John Isner (7-6, 6-3), but had to pack his bags after round two against finalist Daniil Medvedev (4-6, 3-6).
Nakashima has not yet found his rhythm in the tournament. However, the man from San Diego is currently playing at a higher level than his first-round opponent in Miami.
In general, Nakashima is the better player on the hard court. He was able to confirm this with his successes in Milan and San Diego last year, while Otte only reached a second round twice between August and the end of the year 2022.
Conclusion: Otte continues to be in crisis. After Wimbledon 2022, he couldn’t find his way back on track. He has not made it to the third round in any tournament for half a year.
Most recently, he showed a disastrous performance in Phoenix against Popyrin. So far in 2023 he has only beaten one player from the top 100.
Nakashima’s only problems this year have been against fast, agile tennis types like McDonald and Fokina. And Otte, who plays by winning points quickly, is certainly not one of them.
Therefore, I assume a Nakashima win and recommend betting at Betano that Nakashima wins the first set and the match. For this, 1.60 odds are offered.
My tip: Nakashima wins set 1 and match
