French Open in Paris, 1st round, Monday, May 26, 2025, 4:05 p.m.
The wait is finally over – the second Grand Slam tournament of the year is here! From a German perspective, I am naturally hoping for strong results at the French Open, but is this hope really realistic?
In recent months, the players in black, red, and gold have not exactly covered themselves in glory. Accordingly, many of you will not be surprised if my current Struff Ofner tip boils down to the following bet: The Austrian will probably be celebrating, but with a tiebreak!
Good preparation with strong results immediately before a Grand Slam? That could give you a lot of confidence. But what if the opposite is true? Jan-Lennard Struff’s self-confidence has suffered quite a bit this year.
A few days before his trip to Paris, he wanted to show his best side in Hamburg, but promptly lost 6-7, 6-7 to Justin Engel. 27:18 points in the return game, 81% of serves won? The veteran’s performance wasn’t actually that bad.
His opponent had an absolutely perfect day and was simply more alert at the decisive moments. However, this does not change the fact that Struff is not in good form. He withdrew from the Masters in Rome, having previously lost in the first round in Estoril to Miomir Kecmanovic.
Since the tournament in Marseille, which was held in February, Struff has won only once – and who knows how the match against Botic van de Zandschulp (7-5, 2-6, 4-1) would have ended if his opponent hadn’t had to retire injured.
Of course, the 35-year-old knows that he is unlikely to get very far in Paris in his current form. Perhaps the knowledge that the French Open is probably his favorite Grand Slam will help him.
In 2024, he lost in the third round in four sets to Alex de Minaur, which is of course bound to happen. Four years ago, Struff experienced an absolute moment of glory in the French capital.
First a victory against Andrey Rublev, then one against Facundo Bagnis and, to top it all off, a clear win over Carlos Alcaraz (who, of course, cannot yet be compared to today’s world star). Only Diego Schwartzman proved too strong in the round of 16.
Since 2017, which is definitely good news, he has only been knocked out in the first round once. The German suffered this faux pas two years ago, when he was defeated in five sets by Jiri Lehecka.
Five sets or close matches? That immediately brings to mind the only direct duel between Struff and Ofner that has taken place in a main draw. In 2024 in Hong Kong, the two faced each other on hard court.
Struff lost 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, but the result was extremely unfortunate. How do our bookmakers assess the situation after Struff’s mixed performances this year?
With odds of 1.30 to 3.20, Struff is the underdog. Sebastian Ofner is therefore the favorite, even though he has only just broken back into the top 120 in the world rankings.
The Austrian played a really strong preparatory tournament in Geneva, reaching the semi-finals. There, he lost 3-6, 4-6 to Hubert Hurkacz, but had put in some convincing performances beforehand.
He made a great comeback against Karen Khachanov, winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, and beat Nuno Borges 7-6, 7-6. And that despite the fact that the 29-year-old is not necessarily a giant on serve.
On average, 50 percent of his first serves made it over the net at the tournament in Geneva, so there is room for improvement here.
Ofner may have lost in the second round of the Masters in Rome, but his 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 defeat to Frances Tiafoe still left a positive impression. Hurkacz, Cerundolo, and Nakashima, the last three opponents Ofner lost to, were definitely stronger than Jan-Lennard Struff.
The Styrian played his first main draw match in Paris in 2022, losing in straight sets to Alexander Zverev. A year later, he stormed through the qualifiers to reach the round of 16, where Stefanos Tsitsipas ended his run.
Last year, he also avoided an early exit, reaching the third round. This French Open will be special for Ofner anyway, because it will be his first Grand Slam tournament since the end of August 2024.
My Ofner Struff tip
Jan-Lennard Struff had hoped for an easy draw to start with, but does Sebastian Ofner fall into that category? In my opinion, no. The Austrian impressed me greatly in Geneva, but Struff didn’t do so well in Hamburg.
The 35-year-old is completely out of shape, and it’s uncertain whether his calf injury has really healed completely. But his serve isn’t the reason for his slump. Since his serve was on point in Hamburg, I’m going with a classic Grand Slam prediction:
There will be at least one tiebreak!
