ATP Masters in Madrid, Round of 16, Thursday, 05.05.2022
How much does he have to celebrate this Thursday evening, young Carlos Alcaraz? Spain’s new tennis superstar is one of the very big favourites at the Madrid Open – but you have to be able to handle that pressure first.
In the round of 16, he would probably have wished for an easier birthday present than the world number 11.
In my Norrie Alcaraz tip, I take a close look at both players and of course the bookmakers’ clear odds!
Celebrating a birthday in front of your own fans, and then perhaps with a win in the last 16 of a world-famous tournament? For Carlos Alcaraz, a success today would probably be the best present for his 19th birthday.
Of course, he would have won the sympathy of the public even without this special occasion; together with compatriot Rafael Nadal, he is one of the very big favourites for the title.
He has proved often enough this year that he is already a great player at a young age. At the end of April, he won the trophy in Barcelona, and the tournaments in Rio and Miami also went to the 19-year-old.
The only shortcoming was actually the first-round exit in Monte Carlo, which came between his two triumphs in Miami and Barcelona. In fact, he also had a tougher time in the opening round in Madrid than many had actually expected.
Winning 6-3, 7-5 in the end against Nikolos Bassilashvili, 66% won points on first serve is relatively low by his standards. But the opening hurdle has now been overcome, now it should go far again.
Maybe they were influenced by the two direct duels? A few weeks ago in Indian Wells, the Spaniard prevailed 6-4, 6-3, at the last US Open 6-4, 6-4, 6-3.
Of course, Cameron Norrie knows that he is now up against the absolute tournament favourite and will not have the fans on his side either. Unlike Alcaraz, he didn’t start with a walk-through and therefore already has a few games behind him.
The British player had to fight hard for the 7-5, 7-5 win over Soon-woo Kwon, and a little later against John Isner we saw the expected long match. In the end, the match went to the somewhat luckier Norrie 6-4, 5-7, 6-4.
It was definitely strong that Norrie only gave his opponent one break chance. A success rate of 80% on the first serve is not to be neglected either. In both statistics he is clearly ahead of Carlos Alcaraz in the match against Bassilashvili.
Norrie is playing in Madrid for the first time, Alcaraz is also making his first appearance in the last 16 in the Spanish capital. So for both of them, it will be a very new feeling to be here on the brink of reaching the round of the best eight.
My Norrie Alcaraz Tip
Is Carlos Alcaraz really that much stronger than Cameron Norrie? The bookmakers have taken a surprisingly clear stance, but according to my analysis, the Brit is still a bit too underrated for me.
He played a great match against John Isner, Alcaraz had to fight against Bassilashvili more than he would have liked.
We see more than 18.5 games!
