ATP Finals, Group Stage, Thursday, 17.11.2022
A player who has won everything worldwide, to whom the fans’ sympathies fly by the dozen and who always fights his way back even in hopeless situations with terrible injuries – why exactly does this player not manage to finally ignite at a certain tournament?
Rafael Nadal, he just can’t get to grips with the ATP Finals. On Thursday, he will be competing for the third time, having already lost his first two matches. And so it is that he goes into the match as an underdog with odds of 2.75 to 1.43 at Bet365.
His opponent has two wins to his name, even though he was completely out of form before the finals. In my Nadal Ruud tip, I will now reveal what nevertheless makes me bet on an intense, prolonged encounter!
22 Grand Slams Rafael Nadal has won in his great career, two of them this year. Despite pain and hotly debated treatments, he has been at the top of the podium time and time again.
But whether young or old, fit or ailing, when the Spaniard travels to the finals, he messes up the end of the year as he always has. In 2022 it’s the same again, because: He’s out after just two matches!
For the first time since 2009, he has lost the first two matches. Back then, his opponents were Robin Soderling and Nikolay Davydenko, and Nadal also lost to Novak Djokovic at the end.
This time it was Taylor Fritz who taught him the first lesson at 6-7, 1-6. Nadal also lost to Felix Auger-Aliassime, and by a considerable margin. After 3-6, 4-6, there was a lot of guesswork.
Is a great career coming to an end or just that darn curse of finals striking again? The 36-year-old is already safely out of the tournament, but is hoping for a reasonably conciliatory end to what should have been a wonderful year.
Nadal has won two Grand Slams, making him the record champion. His personal highlight, however, is of course the birth of his son in October. And of course the performances in Paris a few months ago.
At the French Open final, the fans witnessed the first and so far only direct duel between him and Casper Ruud. 6-3, 6-3, 6-0, the old master gave the Norwegian a real lesson back then.
In the meantime, however, our bookmakers are of the opinion that they have more confidence in the younger player. Nadal is indeed the underdog on Thursday, even a won set brings odds of 1.50.
Not everyone thought it was possible that Casper Ruud would do so well in the final. We were also very sceptical, after all he fell more and more in the last weeks.
There is no question that Ruud has shown several times this year that he can definitely be counted among the world’s best. At the US Open, he narrowly lost the final to Carlos Alcaraz and had previously knocked several top stars out of the tournament.
Four competitions followed in which Ruud did not want to get into shape at all. He only had two wins here, and at the Masters in Paris he also lost early to Lorenzo Musetti.
But it seems that the 23-year-old is able to combine his strengths perfectly and is ready to go one better at the finals. He already surprised in the first match, because opponent Felix Auger-Aliassime was actually in absolute top form.
Ruud prevailed 7-6, 6-4, showed his ice-cold side and used the only break chance in the whole match. Things got a lot tighter against Taylor Fritz.
Both players showed similar strength, but the more consistent man was the Norwegian in the end. Winning 88% of points on first serve, Ruud’s service was impressive on the night.
Now he has already secured the semi-finals! He was already in the top four in 2021, but then lost out to Daniil Medvedev. If Ruud goes out of the group stage with three wins, it would be quite a big surprise.
It is disappointing and yet somehow obvious that Rafael Nadal again fails to convince at the finals. Firstly, because he just can’t cope with this competition. Secondly, because he is simply not fit.
The elimination can no longer be averted, but at least his opponent Casper Ruud no longer has to push his limits. Both can play free and see what their bodies can still do.
I can well imagine Ruud taking it a little slower to save his energy for the semi-finals. That gives Nadal the opportunity to have a proper farewell to 2022 and leads me to the following tip:
We see more than 21,5 Games!
