ATP Masters in Miami, 2nd round, Sunday, March 23, 2025, 12:30 a.m.
The number 15 seed against the number 18? Not bad for a second round at a Masters! In Miami, it’s straight to the knock-out stage, so the best players don’t get a relaxed start to the tournament.
So, are two players fighting for victory on equal terms in my Musetti Auger-Aliassime tip? Absolutely, and that’s exactly why I’m going to tell you in my analysis why I think a tiebreak bet makes sense here!
What about Felix Auger-Aliassime, is he on his way back to the top of the world or is he stuck in the field of pursuers? The Canadian had already failed at the Australian Open very early on, but then got better and better going.
He won the Open Sud and reached the final in Dubai, but lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas. In Indian Wells, it was back to square one: he was stopped in his tracks in the first round by Jenson Brooksby.
What will happen in Miami? Auger-Aliassime managed to avoid an early exit, but he didn’t exactly cover himself in glory either in his 6-4, 6-4 win over Tristan Schoolkate.
Auger saved the game with a great serve, because he was able to fend off the only break chance his opponent had. 86% of the points won on the first service and 82% on the second service, that’s definitely something to be proud of.
It has been six years since the Canadian achieved his best result in Miami. He reached the semi-finals, but was knocked out by John Isner with 6-7, 6-7 (what a result to go with the tiebreak Americans).
But: Since this successful tournament, he has only managed three more victories. Last year, Auger-Aliassime was knocked out in the second round by Alexander Zverev. What about Lorenzo Musetti, is he one of your favorite opponents?
The head-to-head is 3-3, but only one more match has been played since 2022. That went 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 to Musetti, who secured the bronze medal at the 2024 Olympics in that game.
For our bookmakers with PayPal function, however, it is Auger-Aliassime who is the favorite in this encounter. The average odds reach 1.63 to 2.20, so both are close together.
For Lorenzo Musetti, the Miami Masters is not yet one of his favorite tournaments, with a round of 16 being his best result so far. In 2024, he lost here in two sets to Carlos Alcaraz.
The fact that he even made it through the first round at all this time is thanks to a real show of energy. He won against Quentin Halys 3-6, 7-6, 7-5, gradually getting better into the match.
I certainly can’t attest to the 23-year-old being in top form. In Indian Wells, after one victory (7-5, 5-7, 6-2 against Roman Safiullin), it was already over, he lost to Arthur Fils in three sets.
Only once, at the Australian Open, did the Italian manage three victories in a tournament. Musetti’s talent is undisputed, but he is not yet able to perform consistently on court.
He has only played nine matches this year, six of which went over more sets than necessary. So Musetti has energy, but the number of defeats is still too high.
My Musetti Auger-Aliassime tip
The bottom line here is that two players are facing each other who are on a similar level. I can’t see any major differences between Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime, which of course makes it more difficult to make a well-founded prediction.
I don’t want to commit myself to a winner. Both lack consistency in their play. Since Musetti has had some longer matches this year and Auger-Aliassime impressed with his serve in round 1, I have decided on the following tip:
We’ll see at least one tiebreak!
