Monte Carlo Masters in Monaco, Final, Sunday, 13.04.2025, 12:00 noon
Fancy a 1000-final for Sunday brunch? Here you go! The final of the Monte Carlo Masters was brought forward to 12 noon on Sunday to avoid falling victim to the threatening rain and to prevent delays in play.
Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz will face each other in the final. The Italian will now get to taste final air for the first time after his first Masters semi-final and has the chance to win the biggest title of his career.
In my Musetti Alcaraz tip, I assume that he will be able to keep up very well for a few phases and that we will see over 19.5 games. Tipwin offers the appropriate odds.
The match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina showed once again that when Alcaraz is focused and only halfway reaches his maximum game, he is simply unbeatable on clay. It was only through carelessness and a lack of concentration that his compatriot was able to pose a threat to him.
Despite leading 5-2 in sets, he still had to go into the tiebreak in the first round. A one-dimensional game and some wild shots were responsible for this. But, as in the rounds before, he was able to afford this weak phase. In the important moments, the reigning French Open champion was on hand.
And now he is playing his first Monaco final. Overall, the 21-year-old has five Masters titles; on clay, he has only triumphed in Madrid in 2022 and 2023. He grabbed the other three as part of the Sunshine Doubles in Indian Wells and Miami.
At odds of 1.24, you can bet with Bet-at-home and Co. that he will be able to put the Monaco winner’s trophy in the cupboard after tomorrow’s match. Musetti is already considered quite the underdog at 4.50. A spread I’m definitely going with.
However, I have my doubts as to whether Alcaraz will be able to win the match in two sets again. The odds for this are similar to those against Davidovich Fokina, in the mid-1.60 range, and I had the right hunch with that in my corresponding semi-final prediction.
But: Musetti is a different story on red clay!
While Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic took gold and silver at the Olympics last year, Musetti grabbed the bronze medal in what has been his best year yet, after beating Alexander Zverev. He is currently ranked 16th in the world.
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My targeted bet for this match is the “Over 19.5 games” from Tipwin, by the way, you don’t pay betting tax at the official sports betting partner of Bayer Leverkusen. Alcaraz has only really made a breakthrough against Daniel Altmaier.
The number of unforced errors has been enormous in the tournament so far and Musetti is facing one of the most important matches of his career. And I have a lot of faith in him on return, especially since the Spaniard’s first serve rate has not been outstanding so far.
I expect Musetti to grab a few breaks and that the sets won’t be short, possibly even requiring a third to decide a tournament winner.
I have on my screen that Musetti had less of a breather and had to play the longer semi-final. He spent almost three hours on center court in his comeback against Alex De Minaur. Before that, he took out the defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas and the Zverev conqueror Matteo Berrettini.
The head-to-head is 4-1 in favor of Alcaraz, who won the last three duels without a hitch. However, two of them were played on hard courts, Musetti’s clearly weakest surface. With a victory over the man from El Palmar, Musetti celebrated his greatest success on the ATP Tour, namely the 500 title in Hamburg in 2022.
At the time, they were already on court for around three hours. It remains to be seen whether it will be just as long this time, but Alcaraz would be wise not to allow himself too many weak spells this time against a Musetti in very strong form.
My Musetti Alcaraz tip
Musetti doesn’t like the earlier start at all. He had the longer and later semi-final than Alcaraz. He won’t get a break for twelve hours, but I still think he’s capable of winning a few games against the high-flyer.
Because his opponent is not in top form and on clay, the Italian has already proven several times that he can stand up to the four-time Grand Slam winner, even in a final.
Maybe it won’t be enough for the title in the end, but he will give it his all and should grab a few game wins. Especially since Alcaraz has repeatedly been vulnerable in his service games in recent rounds and Musetti is considered a strong returning and counterattacking player.
My Musetti Alcaraz prediction: Over 19.5 games!
