Miami Masters, 1st round, Wednesday, 20.03.2024
Namous duel in the first round of the Miami Masters. Former world number one and two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray meets 2021 Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini. Two grass court experts on the hardcourt in Florida!
This is Berrettini’s first real appearance after another six-month break. However, he proved that he is still in good form at the Challenger in Phoenix. That’s why my Murray Berrettini tip is also convinced that he will win this match – and with a games handicap of -0.5. The corresponding odds are available at Intertops:
Berrettini’s playing ability makes him one of the best players on the tour. But his career has been anything but smooth. The Italian was constantly slowed down by a variety of lengthy injuries. Sometimes it was his abdominal muscle, most recently his foot went on strike.
Nevertheless, he has been able to prove his qualities time and again, especially on grass, winning 40 of his 50 career matches, was on the verge of a major triumph in 2021, started the Wimbledon final against Novak Djokovic with a straight sets lead, but then went one better.
After another six-month absence from the tour, he has now played his first competitive matches in Phoenix and gained plenty of match practice. On his way to the final, he had to play three sets in three of his four matches
He took the Holger Rune conqueror from Melbourne, Arthur Cazaux, as well as Hugo Gaston, Aleksandar Vukic and Terence Atmane out of the field. Impressive: Due to a postponement, the 27-year-old had to play the quarter-finals and semi-finals within a few hours of each other.
It was only in the final against the in-form Portuguese Nuno Borges that he didn’t have enough energy left, but he nevertheless fought his way back from a break deficit. His direct entry into the final on his comeback also impressed the bookmakers
Intertops has a large selection of bets on all matches. In addition to the obligatory markets, over/under games can also be bet on here, possibly in combination with a player’s match win.
In view of the latest results, I would definitely lean towards an “over 22.5 games” bet. Intertops has 1.66 odds for this. A tiebreak and a 6:4 outcome would already be enough for a payout, a third set would then no longer be necessary.
In Phoenix, Berrettini played five tiebreaks in his last three matches. The three Harcourt duels between the two former top 10 stars also always included at least one tiebreak.
If you don’t want to count matches, you can also bet on a tiebreak at 1.80 at Bet365. Practical at Bet365: The in-house betting configurator is also available for tennis here.
Apropos direct duel: The score is 3:2 in favor of Berrettini, who had lost the opening duel in 2019 but then defeated Murray twice on grass and once in New York. The two played a marathon match the last time they met in Melbourne in 2023, with the veteran ultimately coming out on top after five sets.
It was the third match in a row in which there was no winner without losing a set, which again suggests an over-game bet on Wednesday evening. However, based on Murray’s recent performances, I personally prefer to go for the Berrettini win.
While the comebacker was able to gain a lot of confidence in Phoenix, Murray has only won three of his last twelve matches. Nevertheless, he won the first round match at the last tournaments in Doha, Dubai and Indian Wells
My Murray Berrettini tip
Only three wins in the last twelve matches – and now he faces Berrettini in the first round, who has made an impressive comeback in Phoenix after a long injury break. This time it will be difficult for the Briton to at least make it through the first round.
The Italian not only served strongly at the Challenger, but also made an impression in his return game. He is in better form ahead of the sixth clash against Murray, which is why it wasn’t difficult for me to pick this top match on Wednesday.
My Murray Berrettini tip: Victory Berrettini (-0.5 game handicap)
