ATP Tournament in Mallorca, Round of 16, Wednesday, 24.06.2025, 1:15 p.m.
The German number two wants to get in top form before the most important tennis event of the year. Daniel Altmaier is playing in the 250 tournament in Mallorca this week and has already cleared the first hurdle.
Now he faces a French player who has already made a name for himself this grass season with several impressive matches and who I think has the edge.
Accordingly, I’ve placed a win bet on Moutet Altmaier with my favorite bookmaker Winamax, adding a whopping 1.72 that Moutet will win the first set.
A third set was necessary, but in the end Altmaier was able to bag his first grass court victory of 2025. He has been given a fairly easy task in Fabio Fognini. Away from the clay courts, the 38-year-old is hardly making waves anymore.
Altmaier himself prefers to play on clay, celebrating 13 wins from 21 matches and equaling his Grand Slam best performance from 2020 by reaching the round of 16 again in Paris. There, he was defeated by Frances Tiafoe, who had luck on his side in many moments.
The quarter-finals were definitely possible. At Wimbledon, however, he is unlikely to achieve the same. Since 2018, he has never won more than two matches per season on this surface; to be precise, he only won two in 2022, otherwise he either missed the season completely or won only one match.
After 27 appearances in his career, he has only 11 wins, giving him a meager win rate of 40.7 percent. Thanks to his good world ranking, he was able to compete in the main draw in Halle this year, but was dealt a horror draw against Daniil Medvedev.
In the end, he lost 3-6, 3-6 to the Russian, who later knocked out Alexander Zverev and became the ultimate party pooper for the crowd. Altmaier had just two break points, which Medvedev was able to save.
Medvedev’s 33 percent return points won are respectable, given that 72 percent of his first serves were successful. In the end, he lost three service games against the defensively strong man from Moscow.
He has now converted three out of six against Fognini himself, but often had to fight hard to do so. It was the Italian who had more opportunities in the end and even scored one more point over the entire match.
I’m not surprised that Altmaier is only considered a slight underdog by our top betting providers, despite his clearly better world ranking. In numbers: Altmaier has 2.35, Moutet 1.62. However, we cannot say that the eight-centimeter shorter Moutet is the clear favorite.
Or is it? Winamax users see it differently, with 98 percent opting for the odds on the man who reached the second round in Stuttgart and at the Queens Club and already has five grass court wins in 2025.
It’s a great feature of Winamax that the distribution for the individual markets is displayed. However, we have to treat the figures with caution. This is because the betting provider, where you don’t have to pay tax and still get comparatively high odds, is based in France.
It’s quite possible that one or two betting enthusiasts from our neighboring country may have been wearing their fan glasses. At the same time, we are talking about the latest Taylor-Fritz conqueror, who triumphed in Stuttgart and got a taste of the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2024.
With his aggressive playing style and agility on the court, the current world number 83 is an uncomfortable opponent. However, the 26-year-old sometimes attracts negative attention with unsportsmanlike behavior and comments.
He has played Altmaier five times, winning four times and taking the first set in all matches so far. This matchup has not yet made it to the big stage. In addition to three qualifying matches, they played each other twice in the first round in Umag, Croatia.
My Moutet Altmaier tip
It’s 4:1 for Moutet in the head-to-head, and now it’s time for the surface where I see Moutet as the clear favorite. The bookmakers are likely to have given Altmaier fairly low odds due to his strong clay court season.
However, I don’t think he can beat Moutet, who is in great form at the moment and even managed to defeat Fritz last week, on grass. The odds of 58 to 40 percent say it all.
The Frenchman has won as many grass court matches this year alone as Altmaier has in the last seven years combined.
When they faced each other on court, the first set went to the man from the suburbs of Paris.
Therefore, my Moutet Altmaier prediction is: Set 1 & Match Moutet.
