ATP Finals in Turin, 2nd group match, Wednesday, 15.11.2023
Dream start for Alexander Zverev in the ATP Finals. In his first group match, the reigning Olympic tennis champion defeated the world number two, Carlos Alcaraz.
But the tasks don’t get any easier. On Wednesday, he will continue against Daniil Medvedev, who put on a parade performance against his compatriot Andrey Rublev. In my Medvedev Zverev tip, I make a prediction and opt for a bet at Bet3000:
Zverev produced a strong comeback against Alcaraz. In the first set, he fended off set points in his final service game, but ultimately lost in the tie-break. He improved from the second set onwards.
His service games in particular became more stable. In total, he hit 16 aces with only two double faults. He put a strong 77 percent of his first service into the court and converted 79 percent against the defensive specialist.
Over the entire match, he only conceded one break in the first set. Alcaraz only managed six break chances. On the other hand, the German’s return game, which “wasn’t there for many games”, emphasized the German on the Sky microphone
However, this success has given him confidence. After his serious ligament tear injury, he celebrated his third success against a top 10 player with this win. He celebrated his first against his long-term rival Medvedev in Cincinnati.
Medvedev and Zverev have already met 18 times at professional level! The duel statistics are slightly in favor of the Russian, who leads 11:7. However, the most important success came for the German in 2021, when he beat Medvedev in the final of the ATP Finals.
Even though the sparks flew in press conferences and interviews off the court, the two stars have a pretty good relationship. Medvedev goes into the match as the clear favorite at 1.40 odds, while Zverev gets 2.65 odds from Bet3000
The ATP Finals will be the fourth time they have played each other, in addition to the 2021 final, they duelled in 2020 and 2019. Medvedev was only able to beat Zverev in 2020 at the year-end tournament.
In my opinion, the Russian’s clear favorite rating is exaggerated. Zverev did beat Alcaraz, who is currently not performing at his highest level, in an error-prone match.
Nevertheless, it was a strong performance from the Hamburg-born player, who didn’t even let Alcaraz in on many of his service games. Medvedev played a much weaker rate of first serves (56 percent) against Rublev.
And Medvedev is vulnerable on his second serve, Rublev didn’t use any of his seven break chances and ended up losing more clearly than the match actually was: 6-4, 6-2. He was able to pose a threat to his compatriot on the second serve, with every second point going to Rublev
If Zverev, who is actually such a strong return player, improves on his returns in the second match, he will be dangerous for Medvedev. He will need the breaks despite his strong rate of first serves.
Medvedev is extremely strong under pressure. His opponents have to keep increasing the risk in order to close out the point. Otherwise there is the threat of a parade shot from defense.
He took three service games from Rublev on ten break points at the start. Medvedev last won against Zverev in Beijing: 6-4, 6-3, the second match after Zverev’s doubles success in Cincinnati. On Friday, it will also be a question of efficiency and mentality when it comes to break chances.
After all, the two 1.98-meter-tall stars had the same number of opportunities to take the service game from their opponent in each of their last two matches. Since only nuances have decided the last few times, the 1.40 is too low for Medvedev in my opinion. As a result, the 1.60 for Zverev to win the set at Bet3000 definitely has value.
The bet for three sets at 2.30 is also definitely top. The player who loses the first set will raise the level once again to fight his way into the third round.
My Medvedev Zverev tip
Medvedev vs Zverev, now a classic in the tennis world. The players will meet for the 19th time on Wednesday, the fourth time at the ATP Finals. The overall score is 11:7 in favor of the Russian, while Zverev has a 2:1 lead in the finals.
Medvedev was slightly more convincing in his first match against Rublev than Zverev was against Alcaraz. However, the German was able to raise his level from the second set onwards and, with his current first serve ratio, should not allow Medvedev to get into the break regions too often.
In their two most recent encounters, both players had the same number of break opportunities, with Zverev winning in Cincinnati and Medvedev in Beijing. The success against Alcaraz has definitely boosted Zverev, who generally feels comfortable in Turin.
Medvedev also only hit 56 percent of his first serves successfully on the other side of the court in the opener and is very vulnerable on the second service. I definitely think the two-time finals champion can win a set.
My Medvedev Zverev tip: Zverev wins a set
