Cincinnati Masters 2022, Round of 16, Thursday, 18.08.2022
It’s been almost exactly a year since Daniil Medvedev celebrated the biggest success of his career by winning the US Open. Before he returns to his favourite Grand Slam, he first wants to leave his mark in Cincinnati.
In my Medvedev Shapovalop tip, I reveal why I predict numerous games in this match!
It was the end of January when Daniil Medvedev lost the Australian Open to Rafael Nadal despite leading 2:0. This match, by now it’s fair to say, took its toll on him in the long run.
Although he has become the new world No. 1, his performances have been extremely fluctuating. A few weeks ago in Los Cabos, he was able to win the first trophy of 2022, it took a long time.
But just a few days later in Montreal, the jubilant mood was over again. In the first round he lost in three sets against Nick Kyrgios. Although he was served a tough opponent here, of course, he would not have lost such matches in the past.
He still has one chance to get in shape for the US Open. It was already clear in round 1 that this was not going to be a foregone conclusion! Against Botic van de Zandschulp, the Russian came to a 6-4, 7-5.
Only 58% of his first serve was successful, but he only let his opponent break once. Medvedev is still a top player, but he no longer serves as cool and consistently as he used to.
In his round of 16 match in Cincinnati, he now has to face Denis Shapovalov. In 2017 and 2018, he suffered two defeats here, which he has now managed to equalise at 2:2.
Apparently, this is enough for the German betting providers to send Medvedev into the race with odds of 1.20 to 4.50 as the clear favourite. Denis Shapovalov, however, is in the process of finally finding his feet again.
The bad boy has been one of the biggest talents in the circus for years, but the knot doesn’t really want to burst yet. After being eliminated directly in the 1st round in Washington and Montreal, it was not even really surprising, he seems to be doing better in Cincinnati.
First he beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-6, 6-3, then he also bounced back to win against Tommy Paul. Shapovalov made a strong comeback at 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. The fact that he won two matches in one tournament is particularly pleasing.
The last time he managed that was in May at the Italian Open. In Cincinnati, he won more than 80% of his points on his first serve. If he had not served ten double faults against Paul, the result might have been even better.
Shapovalov is on the road to recovery, but what will it look like when he competes against the big names? If he does win on Thursday night, it would also be his best ever performance at the Masters.
My Medvedev Shapovalov tip
Neither Denis Shapovalov nor Daniil Medvedev are in any real shape at the moment. The Russian is the clear favourite, but he had quite a struggle against Botic van de Zandschulp.
In my analysis I could finally see two wins in a row for Shapovalov. But I don’t really believe it, because the Canadian is incredibly inconsistent at the moment.
Nevertheless, his performance curve is rising, while Medvedev has to be trusted with every result. In this constellation, I can’t imagine that the duel will end quickly and therefore I’m betting:
We see more than 20.5 Games!
