ATP Finals in Turin, 1st group match, Monday, 13.11.2023
The mood at the press conference before the start of the ATP Finals was relaxed. Andrey Rublev flirted with his group opponents and even briefly played with Daniil Medvedev’s beard. It is clear, however, that the players will once again show a serious face when the yellow felt ball is peppered over the net.
The two Russians will meet in Zverev’s group on Monday evening. The statistics speak for themselves. Medvedev has beaten his compatriot seven times, while Rublev has only won two matches. In my Medvedev Rublev betting tip, I recommend odds from Betano:
Medvedev against Rublev, the three against the five of the world. An absolute top match awaits on Monday evening at the ATP Finals. While Medvedev reached another Grand Slam final this year, but missed out on his second US Open title in a duel against Novak Djokovic, Rublev once again failed to reach the final of a major.
Nevertheless, Rublev had a strong year overall in 2023, winning the Masters in Monte Carlo and taking home another title on clay with his tournament success in Bastad. He reached the final six times.
Medvedev spoiled one of them for him. At the beginning of March, the 2021 US Open champion beat Rublev in two sets: 6-2, 6-2. He also suffered a clear defeat against Medvedev in the quarter-finals in New York: 4-6, 3-6, 4-6.
On hard court, Medvedev’s favorite surface, the number three in the world can hardly be stopped when he is in good form. Novak Djokovic, who missed out on the Grand Slam in 2021 after losing the final of the US Open to the “Bear” by the skin of his teeth, can also attest to this.
However, Betano sees Medvedev only slightly ahead at 1.55 on Monday evening, while Rublev was assigned 2.47. Anyone who opts for the smooth 2:0 victory of the favorite can look forward to strong 2.37 odds.
Medvedev lacked the consistency to reach the top of the world rankings. He lost in round three at the Australian Open and surprised Thiago Seyboth Wild at the French Open by sending Medvedev home in the first round.
Indoors, he won the Rotterdam tournament in the spring. Jannik Sinner successfully gained revenge for his defeat in the final in Vienna and snatched the title from under the 27-year-old’s nose. Medvedev surprisingly failed in round one in Paris
Nine wins from eleven indoor hard court matches is impressive. Rublev, on the other hand, only won six of his ten matches. One of Medvedev’s qualities is that, despite his height of 1.98 meters, he is extremely agile when chasing balls around the court.
In rallies, his opponents always have to take risks in order to win the point. Medvedev can conjure up a dangerous counter-attacking winner from any difficult position.
At the same time, he leaves little to be desired with reliable first serves in the service games. He has already won the ATP Finals in 2020, beating Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in the process
Rublev’s qualities lie in his aggressive play. He repeatedly tries to put his opponents under pressure with forehand whips. But these are the moments when Medvedev really turns on the heat.
Will Rublev be able to defeat him this time with his dangerous inside-in shots in their tenth duel at ATP level? Bet365 has 1.53 odds on Rublev winning the set.
The psyche is also important for the match. Both players are known on the tour for their outbursts of anger. Long roars, middle fingers in the direction of the crowd, balls being thrown away – we’ve seen it all this year
My Medvedev Rublev tip
Medvedev won the ATP Finals in 2020 and has already won a Grand Slam tournament in 2021. He also topped the world rankings for several weeks. He feels comfortable on hard court and has a more complete game overall than Rublev.
The 7:2 in the duel statistics therefore doesn’t surprise me and I’m pleased that the odds of the three of the world at Betano Sportwetten are still in an absolutely playable range.
I expect the match to be quite close, but Medvedev is likely to hit the decisive shot more often in the rallies, as he has done in previous duels. He is also the better server.
My Medvedev Rublev tip: Medvedev wins the match
