US Open 2023, Final, Sunday, 09/10/2023
Novak Djokovic gets his revenge for losing the final to Daniil Medvedev at the 2021 US Open. Two years later, the two hard-court aces face each other again in the final at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
It will be the 15th duel between the two stars. Of the last five matches, the record Grand Slam winner has won four. In my Medvedev Djokovic tip I go into the best odds for the final.
Medvedev vs Djokovic has long been a hard court classic. This is the second time the two have faced each other in the final at the US Open.
In 2021, the Russian prevailed, losing to the “Djoker” at the Australian Open in the same year, only to thoroughly spoil his Grand Slam with the final success.
Steffi Graf thus remains the only (ex-)tennis professional to have triumphed in each of the four major tournaments in the space of a year.
The 36-year-old has not yet been able to return the favor at Grand Slam level. Since the US Open final, however, the world number two and number three have met five more times.
Djokovic prevailed four times in a row. However, the last duel was won by Medvedev, in March this year they played out the Dubai semifinals: 6-4, 6-4 was the final result.
After the Australian Open and US Open 2021, this will be the third final encounter at Grand Slam level. Djokovic is quite clearly ahead according to odds with 1.40. Bet365 has assigned Daniil Medvedev a 3.00.
Due to the rather large difference, lucrative odds are already offered for over 3.5 sets. Bet365 has a 1.50 in their repertoire here.
I can’t imagine with the best will in the world a sweep in three sets when these two greats meet in their current form.
In particular, the last performance against Carlos Alcaraz suggests that the World Three will win at least one set on Sunday.
Besides very strong service games, he again lived up to his reputation as the best return player on tour. He used three of seven break chances, thus a strong 43 percent. No other pro takes as many opportunities as he does.
At the same time, he fended off eight of nine break points against Alcaraz, who won his first Grand Slam title last year in New York. Medvedev won 82 percent of the points after the first serve.
Only on the second serve did he stumble again and again. Responsible for the weak rate of only 50 percent are the numerous double faults, against the Spaniard there were ten.
Against his compatriot Rublev, he only managed 29 percent of the points when he had to fumble the second ball out of his pocket. He also stumbled against Alex De Minaur in the round of 16 with only 41 percent.
But he makes up for a lot with his strong defense. Again and again he brings himself from the defense with parade shots into the offense. He is also helped by his outstanding game intelligence.
Even Alcaraz had to admit: “I’m not mature enough to play properly in matches like this,” at the same time the Russian praised himself: “My game was a 12 out of 10. “
He will need the same against Djokovic, who was almost untouchable against Shelton with 84 percent over the first serve. But at the same time, he won only eleven of 32 points over his second service.
In the third set, he made it exciting again, was twice a break ahead, but finally had to go into a tiebreak. Taylor Fritz even had twelve break points against Djokovic in the quarter-finals.
Only Laslo Djere was able to take sets from Novak Djokovic at the US Open. But the numbers show that the Serb can be beaten. Shelton also had a set point in the third.
Medvedev is the only player in 2023 who could put a small blot on Djokovic’s fabulous record of 26 wins from 27 hardcourt matches with success in Dubai.
It was also the last meeting between the two stars before the US Open final. With the current performance of the players, I don’t expect us to have a winner after three sets.
My Medvedev Djokovic US Open Final tip: Over 3.5 sets
