Australian Open 2023, semi-final, Thursday, 26.01.2023
There was excitement among the best tennis players in the world when it became clear: Iga Swiatek is out! Thus, several other top players smelled the chance to finally win their first Grand Slam at the Australian Open. Aryna Sabalenka is one of them.
The Belarusian has come close a couple of times, but always failed just before the finish line. On Thursday, Bwin will send her into her semi-final as the heavy favourite, because nobody really expected her opponent.
She holds the Polish flag high and wants to represent Swiatek in a worthy manner. In my Linette Sabalenka tip, however, I now reveal why I expect the favourite to end her opponent’s run.
For several years now, Aryna Sabalenka has been on the list of those who can be considered as co-favourites at a Grand Slam. However, the 24-year-old has not really progressed beyond the status of perennial talent.
She has reached the semi-finals three times on the big stage, most recently twice in a row in New York. In Melbourne, however, she has shown year after year that she is not really comfortable, at least not yet.
The round of 16 counted as her best performance, now she has already advanced two rounds. The 2022 WTA Finals finalist snatched the title at the Adelaide preparatory tournament, which has obviously given her a mighty lot of confidence.
Now she is sweeping the courts like a hurricane and has yet to drop a single set. Tereza Martincova, Shelby Rogers, Elise Mertens, Belinda Bencic and Donna Vekic were the opponents who stood no chance at all in the end.
However, I have to say at this point: She definitely did not play her best tennis in the quarter-finals. She gave her opponent 14 break chances and was lucky that Vekic could only use two of them.
Sabalenka also made nine double faults, but an average of 75% points won on her first serve is a very strong figure. Will she be able to control her nerves and reach the final for the first time at a GS?
Sabalenka is eleven centimetres taller than her opponent, Magda Linette. Twice before, in 2018 and 2021, the two have faced each other head-to-head, both times the current favourite emerging clear winners by 2-0 scores.
Our bookmakers now have a similar assessment of the situation for Thursday, with the odds averaging 1.15 to 5.00. Admittedly, Magda Linette was really not expected to be among the top four in the run-up to the tournament.
She has lost only one set at this Australian Open, and it was by no means as if she had been blessed with particularly good luck in the draw. Already in the 2nd round a very strong opponent was waiting for her, Anett Kontaveit.
She was also the only one who could take a set from Linette. 6-3, 6-4 against Ekaterina Aleksandrova and 7-6, 6-4 against Caroline Garcia, in the further course of the tournament the Pole threw out the next top players.
She was by no means the favourite in the quarter-finals either, when she faced Karolina Pliskova. But again Linette proved to have the stronger nerves, coming back to win 6-3, 7-5.
The 30-year-old hit 75% on the first service, where she is very similar to Sabalenka.
At every single Grand Slam before this Australian Open, a 3rd round was the best result, actually incredible that Linette was just carried through the tournament in the last days.
Magda Linette is one of the biggest surprises at the Australian Open and has already sent several top players home. Will her streak continue or will Aryna Sabalenka be able to break her down?
As I could see in my analysis, Sabalenka has been without fault in Melbourne, not dropping a single set.
In addition, she has the greater experience in semi-final matches.
Although I take my hat off to the underdog’s performance, I can’t see her grabbing Sabalenka either. Since neither is known for three sets, I opt for the following bet:
Sabalenka wins 2:0 against Linette!
