Miami Open, 2nd Round Qualifier, Tuesday, 21/03/2023
The second round of qualifying in Miami is on. Whoever wins their match will move into the main draw of the Sunshine State’s Masters.
Thanasi Kokkinakis will meet Benoit Paire. Who will prevail in this duel? In my Kokkinakis Paire tip, I go into this match and provide a valid prediction.
Benoit Paire is a long way from his former top performance. In 2016, the Frenchman was still ranked 16th in the world, now he is mostly just part of Challenger tournaments.
In sporting terms, he was at least successful at the beginning of March with the tournament success in Puerto Vallarta (130,00 US dollars prize money). After five matches in Mexico, there was not enough energy left in the duel against Leandro Riedi one day later.
There, the 1.96-metre tall man from Avignon failed 1-6, 4-6. Before that, he had to play four times over three sets in his five Mexico matches.
After a week’s break, he now continues with the Miami Open qualifier, where he beat Gijs Brouwer 6-2, 6-4 in round one.
Kokkinakis is a real challenge in round two and Paire will be up against it, if the odds of the betting companies are anything to go by.
At Bet365, the Australian is the clear favourite against the service specialist. Nick Kyrgios’ doubles buddy has win odds of 1.20. A win for Paire (4.33) would quadruple the stake.
In 2023, Kokkinakis is showing strong form. In Adelaide, he reached the semi-finals and was only defeated by Roberto Bautista Agut (6-7, 6-3, 3-6).
He also went the full distance in the second round at the Australian Open against Andy Murray (6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 3-6, 5-7).
He had digested squandering a 2-0 lead in his country’s biggest tournament a month later at the Manama Challenger tournament.
The 26-year-old won the title, conceding just two sets in the five wins, which included victories over Jan-Lennard Struff and Alexei Popyrin.
At the first Masters of the year, he went through the qualifying in Indian Wells without losing a set. After another two-set win against Brandon Holt (6-4, 6-1), it was finally over against the eventual tournament winner Carlos Alcaraz (3-6, 3-6).
In Phoenix, Kokkinakis last failed to beat Struff in the second round with the same result before he himself won 6-3, 6-3 against Andrea Collarini in the first qualifying round in Miami.
The Australian’s statistics are striking: nine of his last ten matches went over only two sets.
At Bet-at-home, exactly two sets played out could be played for 1.43 odds. Good odds for a combination match.
Because of the better performance compared to Paire, who struggles especially in longer rallies, a 2:0 direct win for Kokkinakis could also be chosen. Bet365 offers bettors a 1.72.
Paire thrives on his first serve, otherwise it will be difficult to make the point against the nimble Kokkinakis. In yesterday’s match, the Frenchman won 81 percent of the points after first service.
Kokkinakis was even more efficient, converting 86 percent of his first serves, even hitting three more aces than Paire in his opening match.
Looking at the direct comparison, there are two duels. Both times the two players met in 2022. In January, Kokkinakis clearly had the edge with 6-4, 6-0.
The first set in the second duel in Cincinnati in August also went to the Kyrgios buddy, and he also managed an early break in the second, benefiting from a retirement by the Frenchman at 3-1.
Summary: Kokkinakis improved his form towards 2023, almost reaching the third round of the Australian Open and winning in Manama.
Apart from his strong serve, his speed is a weapon Paire will have to contend with in the second qualifying round in Miami.
At the latest when the man from Avignon struggles with his serve for the first time, Kokkinakis will strike. Overall, I see little potential for a break of his own in parallel.
Given the difference in class and the previous results between the two players, I opt for an even 2:0 in my Kokkinakis Paire tip at odds of 1.72 at Bet365.
My tip: Kokkinakis wins without dropping a set
